Perturbation, Not Provenance: Why Activation Steering Does Not Make a Robust Text Watermark

Linear directions in the activation space of large language models causally and universally influence model behavior. This suggests that they might serve as a basis for a robust text watermark. The idea is to steer the generation along a specific semantic direction and then recover the mark by probing the activations of the re-encoded text. We test this hypothesis by conducting a series of experiments. We vary the strength of the steering and use four different directions (formality, sentiment, complexity, and a random control) across two different model families. We also test two paraphrasing attacks: a sentence-level one and a stronger paragraph-level one. The results show that activation-steering watermarks are outperformed by a standard logit-based watermark (KGW) in terms of detection accuracy. At a matched level of fluency (within 1.15 times the original text's perplexity), KGW achieved an AUC of 0.81 against a sentence-level paraphraser, while the best steering direction only reached 0.65. A stronger paragraph-level paraphraser lowered both (0.65 for KGW and 0.59 for steering), narrowing the gap but not reversing it. On Qwen, it left the two indistinguishable but at near-chance levels for both. We further showed that the detectability provided by steering was not semantic: a random direction was just as detectable as a meaningful one. The signal was independent of which layer was probed and whether a surface feature control was used. We conclude that, in this case, semantic activation does not encode a localized, recoverable semantic mark, but rather a global, content-independent shift that can only be strongly detected when the text is degraded.