mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

ProtoFlow: Prototype-Guided Flow Matching for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

arXiv 2610.01320 ↗First posted 1 Oct 2026cs.AIcited by 0

On the map: Diffusion models → Flow matching, time series and science

Abstract (arXiv)

Generative modeling has shown strong promise for multivariate time mseries (MTS) forecasting, especially scale to high-dimensional settings. Diffusion-based methods achieve competitive performance but typically require many sampling steps at inference. VAE-based non-iterative forecasting frameworks have therefore emerged as an efficient alternative. Within this line of work, vector quantization (VQ) enables controllable latent space modeling by mapping multivariate series into compact discrete representations. Existing VQ-based forecasting methods, however, typically rely on autoregressive (AR) token generation, which suffers from exposure bias and training-inference mismatch. Flow matching provides an efficient non-autoregressive alternative for latent forecasting, but existing formulations usually initialize transport from a generic Gaussian prior. We instead observe that the trained VQ codebook already captures representative latent prototypes and can thus serve as a more informative prior for flow matching. Based on this insight, we propose ProtoFlow, a forecasting framework that combines vector-quantized autoencoding with Prototype-prior Flow matching. Our method first maps multivariate sequences into a discrete latent space, then constructs a structured prior from the learned codebook, and finally learns a DiT-based rectified flow to transport samples from this prior to future latent representations conditioned on historical observations. By replacing generic noise initialization with a learned prototype prior, ProtoFlow avoids the rollout mismatch of AR token prediction and promotes faster training convergence. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets show that it consistently achieves superior forecasting performance with efficient inference.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 7 Oct 2026). Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models. Builds on 33 of its 44 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 1 Oct 2026.

Builds on

33 of 44 references.

Closest ancestors · 15

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2026SDFlow: Similarity-Driven Flow Matching for Time Series Generation7 May
  2. 2025Non-stationary Diffusion For Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting7 May
  3. 2025Probabilistic Forecasting via Autoregressive Flow Matching13 Mar
  4. 2025Vision-Enhanced Time Series Forecasting via Latent Diffusion Models16 Feb
  5. 2024Flow Matching with Gaussian Process Priors for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting3 Oct
  6. 2024TimeDiT: General-purpose Diffusion Transformers for Time Series Foundation Model3 Sep
  7. 2024MG-TSD: Multi-Granularity Time Series Diffusion Models with Guided Learning Process9 Mar
  8. 2024The Rise of Diffusion Models in Time-Series Forecasting5 Jan
  9. 2023Predict, Refine, Synthesize: Self-Guiding Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting21 Jul
  10. 2023Non-autoregressive Conditional Diffusion Models for Time Series Prediction8 Jun
  11. 2023Improving and generalizing flow-based generative models with minibatch optimal transport1 Feb
  12. 2022Flow Matching for Generative Modeling6 Oct
3 more
  1. 2022Flow Straight and Fast: Learning to Generate and Transfer Data with Rectified Flow7 Sep
  2. 2021CSDI: Conditional Score-based Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Imputation7 Jul
  3. 2021Autoregressive Denoising Diffusion Models for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting28 Jan

Other references · 18

  1. 2019PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Librarycited by 20,160
  2. 2020Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equationscited by 8,964
  3. 2015Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamicscited by 7,005
  4. 2022Scalable Diffusion Models with Transformerscited by 5,931
  5. 2017Neural Discrete Representation Learningcited by 4,650
  6. 2016Density estimation using Real NVPcited by 2,029
  7. 2019Transformer-XL: Attentive Language Models Beyond a Fixed-Length Contextcited by 1,830
  8. 2019An Introduction to Variational Autoencoderscited by 997
  9. 2017Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networkscited by 869
  10. 2015Scheduled Sampling for Sequence Prediction with Recurrent Neural Networkscited by 779
  11. 2019High-Dimensional Multivariate Forecasting with Low-Rank Gaussian Copula Processescited by 147
  12. 2023PDFormer: Propagation Delay-Aware Dynamic Long-Range Transformer for Traffic Flow Predictioncited by 135
6 more
  1. 2019Generalization in Generation: A closer look at Exposure Biascited by 123
  2. 2023Vector Quantized Time Series Generation with a Bidirectional Prior Modelcited by 49
  3. 2024TOTEM: TOkenized Time Series EMbeddings for General Time Series Analysiscited by 37
  4. 2024TimeDART: A Diffusion Autoregressive Transformer for Self-Supervised Time Series Representationcited by 14
  5. 2025Dynamical Diffusion: Learning Temporal Dynamics with Diffusion Modelscited by 8
  6. 2025HDT: Hierarchical Discrete Transformer for Multivariate Time Series Forecastingcited by 7

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  2. 2025Operator Flow Matching for Timeseries Forecasting
  3. 2025Bridging the Last Mile of Prediction: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting with Conditional Guided Flow Matching
  4. 2026Unconditional flow-based time series generation with equivariance-regularised latent spaces
  5. 2025Theoretical Foundation of Flow-Based Time Series Generation: Provable Approximation, Generalization, and Efficiency
  6. 2025FreqFlow: Long-term forecasting using lightweight flow matching
  7. 2025Conditionally Whitened Generative Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
  8. 2026vLinear: A Powerful Linear Model for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting