There Is No Neutral Harness: Modern LLM Leaderboards Are Manufactured by Config-Fragile Items
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Abstract (arXiv)
Multiple-choice benchmarks fix the questions and the correct answers, but not the harness: the order of the options, the wording of the prompt, and whether a language model's answer is read from generated text or from per-option likelihoods. Work on this harness sensitivity reports it as aggregate score variance, leaving unexamined which items the variance falls on and whether they are the items that separate one model from the next. We treat the evaluation harness of large language models (LLMs) as an independent variable and resolve its effect to single items. We introduce the textitfragility grid: 12 open-weight instruction-tuned LLMs from 4 families answer the same 3,679 items from 4 benchmarks (ARC, HellaSwag, MMLU, TruthfulQA) under 26 equally defensible harness configurations, recording one correctness bit for every model, item, and configuration. The comparison is matched, since the items, the weights, and the greedy decoding stay fixed while only the harness varies. Under the grid a model's score is a band rather than a point: gemma4-31b scores between 31 and 89 percent depending only on the harness. Three results follow. On the items that two adjacent models both answer stably the pair is tied, and config-fragile items carry 95.7 percent of a pair's gap on average. Four of the 12 models reach rank one under some configuration, so the harness selects the winner. Item discrimination, the property that benchmark-compression methods maximize, correlates with fragility at 0.28 (95 percent CI 0.25 to 0.30), so compression keeps the fragile items rather than removing them. The scoring choice, not the option order that protocols usually fix, is the load-bearing axis. We release the per-item records and the analysis script, from which every number regenerates on a CPU in seconds, and we position the fragility grid as a check a leaderboard can run before it reports an order.
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References · 19
- 2020Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understandingcited by 7,963
- 2023Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttentioncited by 5,944
- 2018Think you have Solved Question Answering? Try ARC, the AI2 Reasoning Challengecited by 4,886
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- 2021TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoodscited by 2,975
- 2024Chatbot Arena: An Open Platform for Evaluating LLMs by Human Preferencecited by 1,184
- 2021Fantastically Ordered Prompts and Where to Find Them: Overcoming Few-Shot Prompt Order Sensitivitycited by 1,135
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- 2023State of What Art? A Call for Multi-Prompt LLM Evaluationcited by 310
- 2024tinyBenchmarks: evaluating LLMs with fewer examplescited by 310
- 2021Surface Form Competition: Why the Highest Probability Answer Isn't Always Rightcited by 263
- 2023Large Language Models Sensitivity to The Order of Options in Multiple-Choice Questionscited by 263
7 more
- 2021What Will it Take to Fix Benchmarking in Natural Language Understanding?cited by 203
- 2022Leveraging Large Language Models for Multiple Choice Question Answeringcited by 203
- 2020With Little Power Comes Great Responsibilitycited by 142
- 2024When Benchmarks are Targets: Revealing the Sensitivity of Large Language Model Leaderboardscited by 137
- 2023Efficient Benchmarking of Language Modelscited by 71
- 2021Comparing Test Sets with Item Response Theorycited by 57
- 2024Probabilities of Chat LLMs Are Miscalibrated but Still Predict Correctness on Multiple-Choice Q&Acited by 16
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