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EU-ETS under attack? The impact of carbon price suppression on the decarbonization of the power sector

arXiv 2608.12363 ↗First posted 6 Jul 2026econ.GN cs.AI cs.CYcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

European countries are debating policies to mitigate the increased energy costs caused by renewed geopolitical tensions, while pursuing decarbonization and electrification. A notable example is Italy's 2026 Decreto Bollette package, which proposes to remove the carbon price equivalent from the bids of certain gas-driven power plants to wholesale electricity markets, among other provisions. We use this as a case study to assess the long-term implications of suppressing the carbon price signal in the electricity market for investment, emissions, and consumer costs. We employ a stylized Italian power system using MARLEY, a multi-agent reinforcement learning framework focused on long-term electricity market assessments. In this framework, we test this policy across configurations with varying levels of support for green investment, resource adequacy, and flexibility. Results show that partial suppression of the carbon price signal yields short-term cost reductions but only a minor long-term effect on total system costs, as the deferred emissions are ultimately repaid by consumers. CO2 emissions rise across most configurations since suppressing the price signal erodes incentives for renewable and storage investment. Only the most ambitious configurations for supporting green investment avoid this outcome, but they do so by marginalizing the wholesale price signal itself, thereby requiring a commitment to a hybrid market paradigm that is in contradiction with the rationale of the proposed price intervention.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 6 of its 83 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 6 Jul 2026.

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6 of 83 references.

References · 6

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  3. 2021The Surprising Effectiveness of PPO in Cooperative, Multi-Agent Gamescited by 942
  4. 2020Is Independent Learning All You Need in the StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge?cited by 294
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