mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Every Wrong Answer Counts: Option-Level Psychometrics for LLM Multiple-Choice Benchmarks

arXiv 2608.02966 ↗First posted 3 Aug 2026cs.CLcited by 1

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Abstract (arXiv)

Most multiple-choice question (MCQ) benchmarks evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) only by whether they select the correct answers. This binary scoring treats all incorrect responses alike, even though an LLM's preferences among incorrect options may contain systematic and useful information about its behavior and ability. We introduce the LLM Nominal Response Model (LLM-NRM), an option-aware psychometric framework that models the full distribution over answer choices to jointly estimate LLM ability and option-level item characteristics, while separating model-specific response calibration sharpness, positional preference, and difficulty-dependent fallback behavior. Across 189 LLMs and 31,554 items from 14 benchmarks, LLM-NRM predicts held-out LLM-item interactions more accurately than binary Item Response models and conventional nominal-response baselines, and its ability estimates achieve the strongest Spearman correlation of 0.920 with the external human-preference Arena.ai Elo leaderboard. Distractor identity contributes +101% additional Fisher Information per item beyond correctness, and incorrect responses alone recover full-information ability estimates with Spearman 0.943. The learned item parameters also enable efficient benchmarking, where 41 selected items preserve the full-bank ranking with Kendall's correlation 0.85, corresponding to a 770 times reduction. In conclusion, we show that incorrect answers carry distinct and useful measurement information rather than representing equivalent mistakes.

Key facts. Cited by 1 paper in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 26 of its 48 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 3 Aug 2026.

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26 of 48 references.

References · 26

  1. 2018Think you have Solved Question Answering? Try ARC, the AI2 Reasoning Challengecited by 4,886
  2. 2021TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoodscited by 2,975
  3. 2023GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmarkcited by 2,879
  4. 2018Can a Suit of Armor Conduct Electricity? A New Dataset for Open Book Question Answeringcited by 2,164
  5. 2022Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Knowcited by 1,856
  6. 2024MMLU-Pro: A More Robust and Challenging Multi-Task Language Understanding Benchmarkcited by 1,848
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  9. 2024Chatbot Arena: An Open Platform for Evaluating LLMs by Human Preferencecited by 1,184
  10. 2017RACE: Large-scale ReAding Comprehension Dataset From Examinationscited by 861
  11. 2023Large Language Models Are Not Robust Multiple Choice Selectorscited by 486
  12. 2024tinyBenchmarks: evaluating LLMs with fewer examplescited by 310
14 more
  1. 2019QASC: A Dataset for Question Answering via Sentence Compositioncited by 252
  2. 2020ReClor: A Reading Comprehension Dataset Requiring Logical Reasoningcited by 217
  3. 2023On the Calibration of Large Language Models and Alignmentcited by 73
  4. 2024Artifacts or Abduction: How Do LLMs Answer Multiple-Choice Questions Without the Question?cited by 71
  5. 2021Comparing Test Sets with Item Response Theorycited by 57
  6. 2019Deep-IRT: Make Deep Learning Based Knowledge Tracing Explainable Using Item Response Theorycited by 51
  7. 2023Position: AI Evaluation Should Learn from How We Test Humanscited by 36
  8. 2025The LLM Already Knows: Estimating LLM-Perceived Question Difficulty via Hidden Representationscited by 29
  9. 2025Adaptive Testing for LLM Evaluation: A Psychometric Alternative to Static Benchmarkscited by 28
  10. 2019β3-IRT: A New Item Response Model and its Applicationscited by 17
  11. 2024From Loops to Oops: Fallback Behaviors of Language Models Under Uncertaintycited by 14
  12. 2025Estimating LLM Consistency: A User Baseline vs Surrogate Metricscited by 8
  13. 2026Extending Item Response Theory for Efficient and Meaningful Multilingual Evaluationcited by 2
  14. 2026Quantifying Consistency in LLM Logical Reasoning via Structural Uncertaintycited by 2

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