On the Use of Synthetic Data for Threshold Calibration in Face Recognition: Performance and Security Implications for Border Control Systems

The recently deployed Entry/Exit System (EES) introduces large-scale biometric verification into European border control, requiring face recognition systems to operate at extremely low false match rates (FMR). While regulatory frameworks define performance targets at the EES Central System level, they do not specify how verification thresholds should be calibrated in practice at the Member State level. In operational settings, obtaining representative real-world data for calibration is often constrained by legal, logistical, and privacy limitations. In this work, we investigate the use of synthetic face data for threshold calibration in document-to-live verification scenarios relevant to border control systems. We analyze the alignment of genuine and impostor score distributions between synthetic and real datasets and evaluate the transferability of calibrated thresholds across domains, with a focus on low-FMR operating points. Our results show that synthetic data can approximate calibration behavior in controlled settings, but fails to reliably generalize to unconstrained conditions due to mismatches in score distribution tails. These discrepancies lead to significant degradation in recognition performance and increased vulnerability to morph-based attacks. We further demonstrate that calibration outcomes are highly dataset-dependent, even across synthetic datasets. Overall, our findings highlight that while synthetic data is useful for system development and preliminary calibration, our results indicate that reliable threshold selection in high-security deployments typically requires validation and adjustment using representative real-world data.