Can Generative Recommendation Reach Cold Items? A Temporal Perspective on Semantic-ID Generation

Semantic-ID-based generative recommendation represents items as sequences of shared semantic tokens, enabling token recombination beyond isolated item IDs. However, closed-world recombination does not necessarily imply temporal open-token cold-start induction, where new items enter the item catalog with unseen atomic tokens or weakly supported SID paths. In this work, we revisit SID-based generative recommendation under an absolute-time temporal protocol that separates seen and unseen targets and diagnoses the cold item reachability at the token level. Through seen/unseen-hit analysis, coldness taxonomy, and oracle-prefix probing, we show that current SID-based models can occasionally reach future items supported by observed tokens and prefixes, but struggle with unseen atomic tokens and unsupported SID paths. We further explain this boundary by interpreting SID generation as hierarchical semantic bucketing: early tokens select coarse semantic regions, while later tokens refine item-specific paths. These findings show that SID generation is compositional but not fully open-ended, and suggest future directions in more independent SID spaces, scoring-based interfaces, and dynamic textual context.