Diagnosing and Mitigating Retrieval Bottlenecks in LLM-Based Cold-Start Recommendation

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as rerankers in recommender systems, with the expectation that semantic understanding will help in cold-start and long-tail regimes. We test this assumption with a five-domain benchmark that explicitly separates reranking quality from retrieval coverage. In a positive-controlled regime where the gold item is guaranteed present, calibrated LLM rerankers fail to consistently outperform strong collaborative and content baselines under natural traffic, and within-family scaling from Qwen3-8B to Qwen3-32B narrows but does not close the gap on most domains. In a retrieval-realistic regime where the gold item is not injected, the bottleneck is more severe: standard single retrievers place the gold item in a 200-item pool only 4.6-22.9% of the time, largely because 32-91% of cold-start targets are brand-new items with no training interactions. We introduce LHF, a validation-trained learned hybrid fusion layer over a multi-retriever union pool, as a retrieval-side realizability baseline. LHF is the only combiner we test that beats every single retriever on all five domains and recovers 17-61% of oracle coverage headroom on content-rich domains, but only 5-7% on collaboratively strong domains. End-to-end experiments reveal the remaining mismatch: learned non-LLM ranking exploits the LHF pool, while prompt-level LLM reranking often degrades it. LLMs exhibit pockets of semantic cold-start advantage, especially in text-rich domains when the item is already present, but this advantage is largely unreachable in current retrieve-then-rerank pipelines. We release the benchmark protocol, splits, prompts, evaluation tooling, and archived reproducibility artifacts: data at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20991039 and code at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20993306.