Overfitted high-dimensional matrix factorizations via adaptive spectral shrinkage

Factor models are popular approaches for analyzing high-dimensional data to extract low-rank signals and estimate covariances. They decompose the covariance matrix as the sum of low-rank and diagonal components. A key issue is how to choose the latent dimension k, which is particularly challenging when the factor model only holds approximately and in low signal-to-noise scenarios. Bayesian overfitted factor models specify an upper bound on k and rely on structured shrinkage priors to effectively remove extra components. Such approaches are popular and effective, but computationally expensive. We propose a much faster textttEigenBayes approach that provides valid uncertainty quantification, based on spectral estimation of latent factors and adaptive empirical Bayes calibration of key hyperparameters. The resulting posterior distribution factorizes across outcomes and is analytically tractable, bypassing Markov chain Monte Carlo. We show that textttEigenBayes adapts to the signal-to-noise ratio of each outcome and latent dimension, while shrinking superfluous latent components to zero. We establish favorable asymptotic properties and demonstrate strong empirical performance in numerical experiments and a genomics application, where EigenBayes outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives.