Once-for-All: Scalable Simultaneous Forecasting via Equilibrium State Estimation
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Abstract (arXiv)
We introduce Equilibrium State Estimation (ESE), a novel paradigm for simultaneous prediction, where multiple interacting systems require separate yet coordinated forecasts. Such scenarios often arise in real-world settings such as economics and healthcare modeling. Unlike existing approaches that predict one system at a time, ESE forecasts all systems in a single pass. It first estimates the equilibrium state across systems, then generates holistic forecasts based on the difference between the current state and the estimated equilibrium. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, including currency exchange and COVID-19 spread modeling, demonstrate that ESE is at least as accurate as state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods while being significantly faster. In addition, ESE integrates seamlessly with conventional predictors, combining their accuracy with its exceptional efficiency and delivering a 10-70x speedup. With linear-time complexity, ESE scales far better than SOTA methods as the number of systems increases. Moreover, it remains accurate under diverse perturbations, establishing ESE as a fast, generalizable, robust, and scalable multi-prediction method.
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References · 18
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- 2022FiLM: Frequency improved Legendre Memory Model for Long-term Time Series Forecastingcited by 147
6 more
- 2022Deep Equilibrium Optical Flow Estimationcited by 63
- 2019Regression Equilibriumcited by 16
- 2021Model-Free Online Learning in Unknown Sequential Decision Making Problems and Gamescited by 12
- 2023Hardness of Independent Learning and Sparse Equilibrium Computation in Markov Gamescited by 9
- 2020Controlling the Outbreak of COVID-19: A Noncooperative Game Perspectivecited by 2
- 2021Machine-Learned Prediction Equilibrium for Dynamic Traffic Assignmentcited by 2
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