Position: Prioritize Identifying Structure, Not Complex Models, for Scientific Discovery
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
Modern Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) models, especially large language models (LLMs), are increasingly used to generate scientific hypotheses and mechanistic explanations from observational data. This position paper argues that in the high-dimensional proxy regimes where modern ML excels, mechanistic learning is generically underdetermined: many incompatible mechanisms induce essentially the same observational relationships on the support of the data, so predictive success and coherent explanations are insufficient evidence of mechanism discovery. This underdetermination becomes uniquely hazardous with large language models (LLMs), which tend to collapse large equivalence classes of explanations into a single fluent narrative. This paper proposes concrete standards for ``mechanistic ML,'' and argues these norms are necessary if LLM-centered workflows are to support science rather than merely simulate it.
Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 21 of its 60 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 30 May 2026.
Builds on
21 of 60 references.
References · 21
- 2017What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?cited by 2,335
- 2018Challenging Common Assumptions in the Unsupervised Learning of Disentangled Representationscited by 929
- 2019Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methodscited by 903
- 2019AI Feynman: a Physics-Inspired Method for Symbolic Regressioncited by 536
- 2015Causal inference using invariant prediction: identification and confidence intervalscited by 533
- 2019Variational Autoencoders and Nonlinear ICA: A Unifying Frameworkcited by 494
- 2020Underspecification Presents Challenges for Credibility in Modern Machine Learningcited by 488
- 2018All Models are Wrong, but Many are Useful: Learning a Variable's Importance by Studying an Entire Class of Prediction Models Simultaneouslycited by 364
- 2024Hallucination is Inevitable: An Innate Limitation of Large Language Modelscited by 329
- 2016Identifying Causal Effects With Proxy Variables of an Unmeasured Confoundercited by 138
- 2021Algorithmic Monoculture and Social Welfarecited by 98
- 2022Exploring the Whole Rashomon Set of Sparse Decision Treescited by 80
9 more
- 2019Machine Learning Methods Economists Should Know Aboutcited by 63
- 2023The No Free Lunch Theorem, Kolmogorov Complexity, and the Role of Inductive Biases in Machine Learningcited by 63
- 2023Causal Representation Learning Made Identifiable by Grouping of Observational Variablescited by 30
- 2025AutoDiscovery: Open-ended Scientific Discovery via Bayesian Surprisecited by 28
- 2025Position: Uncertainty Quantification Needs Reassessment for Large-language Model Agentscited by 27
- 2025Sparse Autoencoders for Hypothesis Generationcited by 24
- 2023Causal quartets: Different ways to attain the same average treatment effectcited by 4
- 2024Robustly estimating heterogeneity in factorial data using Rashomon Partitionscited by 4
- 2023Causal inference is not just a statistics problemcited by 1
Built on by
Not cited yet.