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Formalizing and falsifying causal pathways of rare events

arXiv 2605.31254 ↗First posted 29 May 2026cs.AIcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Building on recent formalizations of root cause analysis for rare events (``outliers'') in structural equation models, we propose a formal definition of a causal pathway and discuss its testable implications. We identify conditions under which these implications depend only on a causal abstraction defined by the pathway of rare events, rather than on the full causal graph of the underlying system. Accordingly, we introduce an abstraction of causal structure to pathways of rare events that bridges simple verbal causal explanations and detailed causal modeling.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 29 of its 46 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 29 May 2026.

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References · 29

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17 more
  1. 2021MicroHECL: High-Efficient Root Cause Localization in Large-Scale Microservice Systemscited by 36
  2. 2024Root Cause Analysis In Microservice Using Neural Granger Causal Discoverycited by 32
  3. 2022Causal Explanations and XAIcited by 30
  4. 2021Causal Sufficiency and Actual Causationcited by 29
  5. 2019Causal discovery in heavy-tailed modelscited by 20
  6. 2024Root Cause Analysis of Outliers with Missing Structural Knowledgecited by 19
  7. 2024Root Cause Analysis for Microservice System based on Causal Inference: How Far Are We?cited by 15
  8. 2020Non-parametric causal effects based on longitudinal modified treatment policiescited by 14
  9. 2024Root cause discovery via permutations and Cholesky decompositioncited by 11
  10. 2020An Interventionist Approach to Mediation Analysiscited by 10
  11. 2023Meaningful Causal Aggregation and Paradoxical Confoundingcited by 5
  12. 2025Extremes of structural causal modelscited by 4
  13. 2025Robust Root Cause Diagnosis using In-Distribution Interventionscited by 4
  14. 2025time2time: Causal Intervention in Hidden States to Simulate Rare Events in Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 4
  15. 2025Toward Universal Laws of Outlier Propagationcited by 3
  16. 2025Decomposition of Probabilities of Causation with Two Mediatorscited by 3
  17. 2023Beyond Single-Feature Importance with ICECREAMcited by 2

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