Unveiling the Visual Counting Bottleneck in Vision-Language Models

While Large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) excel at interpolation, they suffer catastrophic failures in systematic generalization, most notably in visual counting. In this work, we investigate this extrapolation bottleneck by deconstructing visual counting into three cognitive stages: visual individuation, magnitude awareness, and symbolic mapping. Using synthetic Go boards and linear probes, we demonstrate that visual backbones maintain robust, linearly separable representations of quantity well into the extrapolation regime, ruling out perceptual failure. Furthermore, models retain latent magnitude awareness, successfully performing comparative reasoning on quantities they fail to enumerate. We pinpoint the collapse to the symbolic mapping stage, where the model fails to project valid visual magnitudes onto symbolic tokens. Our findings support a frac tured magnitude hypothesis: VLMs fail to acquire a universal number space, instead learning disjoint, modality-specific statistical manifolds that prevent cross-modal grounding for unseen quantities. Validated on the state-of-the-art foundation model, our results suggest that bridging this gap requires inductive priors enforcing unified representations, as data scaling alone is insufficient.