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Time Series Causal Discovery via Context-Conditioned and Causality-Augmented Pretraining

arXiv 2605.26759 ↗First posted 26 May 2026cs.LGcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Causal discovery from time series is critical for many real-world applications, such as tracing the root causes of anomalies. Existing approaches typically rely on dataset-specific optimization, making it difficult to transfer their causal discovery capabilities to new time series governed by diverse causal mechanisms. In this paper, we propose PTCD, a novel Pretraining framework for Time-series Causal Discovery, which improves cross-task generalization through context-conditioned modeling and transferable causal augmentation. To model complex temporal causal dependencies, PTCD employs a dual-scale iterative attention mechanism to capture window-level causal relationships, and a Gaussian mixture with a context-level routing mechanism to handle heterogeneous exogenous distributions. To further address distribution shifts across causal graphs, PTCD adopts a pretraining paradigm on synthetic datasets that integrates intervention-based learning and a causal mixup strategy, promoting stable causal discovery and stronger generalization. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world out-of-distribution (OOD) datasets demonstrate that PTCD excels in both causal discovery and root cause identification.

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References · 20

  1. 2017Detecting causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasetscited by 244
  2. 2020DYNOTEARS: Structure Learning from Time-Series Datacited by 200
  3. 2016Robust Large Margin Deep Neural Networkscited by 118
  4. 2022Amortized Inference for Causal Structure Learningcited by 90
  5. 2022Learning to Induce Causal Structurecited by 68
  6. 2022Causal Inference-Based Root Cause Analysis for Online Service Systems with Intervention Recognitioncited by 56
  7. 2013Causal Discovery from Changescited by 52
  8. 2021Interpretable Models for Granger Causality Using Self-explaining Neural Networkscited by 45
  9. 2021Causal Inference for Time series Analysis: Problems, Methods and Evaluationcited by 42
  10. 2023CUTS+: High-dimensional Causal Discovery from Irregular Time-seriescited by 41
  11. 2023A Survey on Causal Discovery Methods for I.I.D. and Time Series Datacited by 35
  12. 2021NTS-NOTEARS: Learning Nonparametric DBNs With Prior Knowledgecited by 33
8 more
  1. 2023CUTS: Neural Causal Discovery from Irregular Time-Series Datacited by 33
  2. 2022Rhino: Deep Causal Temporal Relationship Learning With History-dependent Noisecited by 30
  3. 2025CausalRivers -- Scaling up benchmarking of causal discovery for real-world time-seriescited by 26
  4. 2023Zero-shot causal learningcited by 17
  5. 2023Discovering Mixtures of Structural Causal Models from Time Series Datacited by 10
  6. 2024Embracing the black box: Heading towards foundation models for causal discovery from time series datacited by 7
  7. 2024A Fixed-Point Approach for Causal Generative Modelingcited by 7
  8. 2025Robust Root Cause Diagnosis using In-Distribution Interventionscited by 4

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