Beyond Prediction: Interval Neural Networks for Uncertainty-Aware System Identification
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Abstract (arXiv)
System identification (SysID) is critical for modeling dynamical systems from experimental data, yet traditional approaches often fail to capture nonlinear behaviors. While deep learning offers powerful tools for modeling such dynamics, incorporating uncertainty quantification is essential to ensure reliable predictions. This paper presents a systematic framework for constructing and training interval Neural Networks (INNs) for uncertainty-aware SysID. By extending crisp neural networks into interval counterparts, we develop Interval LSTM and NODE models that propagate uncertainty through interval arithmetic without probabilistic assumptions. This design allows them to represent uncertainty and produce prediction intervals. For training, we propose two strategies: Cascade INN (C-INN), a two-stage approach converting a trained crisp NN into an INN, and Joint INN (J-INN), a one-stage framework jointly optimizing prediction accuracy and interval precision. Both strategies employ uncertainty-aware loss functions and parameterization tricks to ensure reliable learning. Comprehensive experiments on multiple SysID datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of both approaches and benchmark their performance against well-established uncertainty-aware baselines: C-INN achieves superior point prediction accuracy, whereas J-INN yields more accurate and better-calibrated prediction intervals. Furthermore, to reveal how uncertainty is represented across model parameters, the concept of channel-wise elasticity is introduced, which is used to identify distinct patterns across the two training strategies. The results of this study demonstrate that the proposed framework effectively integrates deep learning with uncertainty-aware modeling.
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References · 22
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- 2020A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challengescited by 819
- 2021A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networkscited by 680
- 2018High-Quality Prediction Intervals for Deep Learning: A Distribution-Free, Ensembled Approachcited by 117
- 2023Deep networks for system identification: a Surveycited by 37
- 2020Continuous-time system identification with neural networks: Model structures and fitting criteriacited by 30
- 2023Understanding Certified Training with Interval Bound Propagationcited by 26
- 2021Assessments of epistemic uncertainty using Gaussian stochastic weight averaging for fluid-flow regressioncited by 15
- 2022Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Nonlinear System Identificationcited by 15
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- 2020Interval Neural Networks: Uncertainty Scorescited by 14
- 2022On the adaptation of recurrent neural networks for system identificationcited by 13
- 2023Enhancing Continuous Time Series Modelling with a Latent ODE-LSTM Approachcited by 9
- 2024Relaxed Quantile Regression: Prediction Intervals for Asymmetric Noisecited by 8
- 2019Optimal Uncertainty-guided Neural Network Trainingcited by 7
- 2023A Toolbox for Fast Interval Arithmetic in numpy with an Application to Formal Verification of Neural Network Controlled Systemscited by 6
- 2024Deep Learning of Dynamic Systems using System Identification Toolbox(TM)cited by 5
- 2025dynoGP: Deep Gaussian Processes for dynamic system identificationcited by 3
- 2025Introducing Interval Neural Networks for Uncertainty-Aware System Identificationcited by 3
- 2026SOLIS: Physics-Informed Learning of Interpretable Neural Surrogates for Nonlinear Systemscited by 2
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