Introducing Interval Neural Networks for Uncertainty-Aware System Identification
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Abstract (arXiv)
System Identification (SysID) is crucial for modeling and understanding dynamical systems using experimental data. While traditional SysID methods emphasize linear models, their inability to fully capture nonlinear dynamics has driven the adoption of Deep Learning (DL) as a more powerful alternative. However, the lack of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in DL-based models poses challenges for reliability and safety, highlighting the necessity of incorporating UQ. This paper introduces a systematic framework for constructing and learning Interval Neural Networks (INNs) to perform UQ in SysID tasks. INNs are derived by transforming the learnable parameters (LPs) of pre-trained neural networks into interval-valued LPs without relying on probabilistic assumptions. By employing interval arithmetic throughout the network, INNs can generate Prediction Intervals (PIs) that capture target coverage effectively. We extend Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) into Interval LSTM (ILSTM) and Interval NODE (INODE) architectures, providing the mathematical foundations for their application in SysID. To train INNs, we propose a DL framework that integrates a UQ loss function and parameterization tricks to handle constraints arising from interval LPs. We introduce novel concept "elasticity" for underlying uncertainty causes and validate ILSTM and INODE in SysID experiments, demonstrating their effectiveness.
Key facts. Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 10 of its 29 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 26 Apr 2025.
Builds on
10 of 29 references.
References · 10
- 2018Neural Ordinary Differential Equationscited by 3,779
- 2020A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challengescited by 819
- 2018High-Quality Prediction Intervals for Deep Learning: A Distribution-Free, Ensembled Approachcited by 117
- 2023Deep networks for system identification: a Surveycited by 37
- 2023Understanding Certified Training with Interval Bound Propagationcited by 26
- 2021Assessments of epistemic uncertainty using Gaussian stochastic weight averaging for fluid-flow regressioncited by 15
- 2022Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Nonlinear System Identificationcited by 15
- 2020Interval Neural Networks: Uncertainty Scorescited by 14
- 2023Enhancing Continuous Time Series Modelling with a Latent ODE-LSTM Approachcited by 9
- 2024Relaxed Quantile Regression: Prediction Intervals for Asymmetric Noisecited by 8
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Citing papers per year: 2025: 1; 2026: 2.
3 papers.
- 2025Stable-by-Design Neural Network-Based LPV State-Space Models for System Identificationcited by 2
- 2026SOLIS: Physics-Informed Learning of Interpretable Neural Surrogates for Nonlinear Systemscited by 2
- 2026Beyond Prediction: Interval Neural Networks for Uncertainty-Aware System Identificationcited by 0
- 2026Beyond Prediction: Interval Neural Networks for Uncertainty-Aware System Identification12 May 2026
- 2026SOLIS: Physics-Informed Learning of Interpretable Neural Surrogates for Nonlinear Systems16 Apr 2026
- 2025Stable-by-Design Neural Network-Based LPV State-Space Models for System Identification21 Oct 2025