Why Zeroth-Order Adaptation May Forget Less: A Randomized Shaping Theory

Continual learning requires new-task adaptation without damaging previously acquired capabilities. Recent forward-pass and zeroth-order (ZO) results show that low-query adaptation may retain better than first-order (FO) descent, but the usual view of ZO as noisy FO estimation does not explain why. We give a local randomized gradient-shaping analysis: finite differences expose a raw shape that is mean-aligned with FO, while the norm-matched comparator fixes the expected squared adaptation norm. Under this controlled comparison, forgetting depends on how the adaptation shape exposes retention curvature. For norm-matched ZO, the expected shaped retention curvature obeys an exact identity that preserves the isotropic retention floor while contracting only the anisotropic component. Projecting this identity onto the incoming gradient yields the observable FO--ZO quadratic forgetting gap: ZO improves mean forgetting precisely when the FO direction has above-average retention curvature, by a query-dependent fraction of that curvature excess. A practical finite-query accounting separates the mean mechanism from one-batch sampling and smoothing perturbations. As an algorithmic transfer, RISE applies the calibrated ZO shape to exact FO gradients inside parameter blocks. Its target is a stability--plasticity tradeoff: randomized shaping may reduce the retention exposure paid by FO, exact gradients remove finite-smoothing bias from finite-difference ZO, and blockwise sampling supplies many local shaping directions after one gradient computation. The blockwise analysis separates mean-step damage from centered random exposure, showing how block-diagonal curvature, cross-block coupling, and local shaping diagnostics specify where this exact-gradient transfer is most likely to be visible.