STABLEVAL: Disagreement-Aware and Stable Evaluation of AI Systems

Human evaluation remains the primary standard for assessing modern AI systems, yet annotator disagreement, bias, and variability make system rankings fragile under standard majority vote aggregation. Majority vote discards annotator reliability and item-level ambiguity, often yielding unstable comparisons across annotator subsets. We introduce STABLEVAL, a disagreement-aware evaluation framework that models latent item correctness and annotator-specific confusion patterns to produce posterior expected item credit and calibrated agent-level scores. Unlike label-denoising approaches such as Dawid-Skene, STABLEVAL is explicitly designed for stable and uncertainty-aware system evaluation rather than hard label recovery. We formalize ranking stability as a first-class evaluation objective and analyze how aggregation methods preserve or distort underlying annotator behavior. Across controlled synthetic experiments and multiple real-world human-annotated benchmarks, majority vote exhibits increasing score error and ranking instability under annotator heterogeneity and adversarial noise, while STABLEVAL yields more stable and statistically grounded system rankings. These results demonstrate that modeling disagreement is essential for robust and reproducible AI evaluation.