FTimeXer: Frequency-aware Time-series Transformer with Exogenous variables for Robust Carbon Footprint Forecasting
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Abstract (arXiv)
Accurate and up-to-date forecasting of the power grid's carbon footprint is crucial for effective product carbon footprint (PCF) accounting and informed decarbonization decisions. However, the carbon intensity of the grid exhibits high non-stationarity, and existing methods often struggle to effectively leverage periodic and oscillatory patterns. Furthermore, these methods tend to perform poorly when confronted with irregular exogenous inputs, such as missing data or misalignment. To tackle these challenges, we propose FTimeXer, a frequency-aware time-series Transformer designed with a robust training scheme that accommodates exogenous factors. FTimeXer features an Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)-driven frequency branch combined with gated time-frequency fusion, allowing it to capture multi-scale periodicity effectively. It also employs stochastic exogenous masking in conjunction with consistency regularization, which helps reduce spurious correlations and enhance stability. Experiments conducted on three real-world datasets show consistent improvements over strong baselines. As a result, these enhancements lead to more reliable forecasts of grid carbon factors, which are essential for effective PCF accounting and informed decision-making regarding decarbonization.
Key facts. Cited by 1 paper in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 15 of its 24 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 16 Feb 2026.
Builds on
15 of 24 references.
References · 15
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3 more
- 2021Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSxcited by 63
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- 2023A Survey on Deep Learning based Time Series Analysis with Frequency Transformationcited by 40
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Citing papers per year: 2026: 1.
1 paper.