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Decorrelating the Future: Joint Frequency Domain Learning for Spatio-temporal Forecasting

arXiv 2603.04418 ↗First posted 13 Feb 2026cs.LG cs.AI stat.MLcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Standard direct forecasting models typically rely on point-wise objectives such as Mean Squared Error, which fail to capture the complex spatio-temporal dependencies inherent in graph-structured signals. While recent frequency-domain approaches such as FreDF mitigate temporal autocorrelation, they often overlook spatial and cross spatio-temporal interactions. To address this limitation, we propose FreST Loss, a frequency-enhanced spatio-temporal training objective that extends supervision to the joint spatio-temporal spectrum. By leveraging the Joint Fourier Transform (JFT), FreST Loss aligns model predictions with ground truth in a unified spectral domain, effectively decorrelating complex dependencies across both space and time. Theoretical analysis shows that this formulation reduces estimation bias associated with time-domain training objectives. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that FreST Loss is model-agnostic and consistently improves state-of-the-art baselines by better capturing holistic spatio-temporal dynamics.

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References · 20

  1. 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 59,932
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  11. 2023FourierGNN: Rethinking Multivariate Time Series Forecasting from a Pure Graph Perspectivecited by 126
  12. 2023Exploring Progress in Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: Comprehensive Benchmarking and Heterogeneity Analysiscited by 113
8 more
  1. 2024SparseTSF: Modeling Long-term Time Series Forecasting with 1k Parameterscited by 103
  2. 2024FreDF: Learning to Forecast in the Frequency Domaincited by 77
  3. 2016Stationary Graph Processes and Spectral Estimationcited by 35
  4. 2016Stationary signal processing on graphscited by 28
  5. 2023ST-MLP: A Cascaded Spatio-Temporal Linear Framework with Channel-Independence Strategy for Traffic Forecastingcited by 21
  6. 2017A Time-Vertex Signal Processing Frameworkcited by 20
  7. 2025Spatiotemporal-aware Trend-Seasonality Decomposition Network for Traffic Flow Forecastingcited by 19
  8. 2016Stationary time-vertex signal processingcited by 8

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