mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Geometry of Drifting MDPs with Path-Integral Stability Certificates

arXiv 2601.21991 ↗First posted 29 Jan 2026cs.LG cs.AIcited by 8

On the map: Deep reinforcement learning methods → RL theory and sample complexity

Abstract (arXiv)

Real-world reinforcement learning is often nonstationary: rewards and dynamics drift, accelerate, oscillate, and trigger abrupt switches in the optimal action. Existing theory often represents nonstationarity with coarse-scale models that measure how much the environment changes, not how it changes locally -- even though acceleration and near-ties drive tracking error and policy chattering. We take a geometric view of nonstationary discounted Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) by modeling the environment as a differentiable homotopy path and tracking the induced motion of the optimal Bellman fixed point. This yields a length-curvature-kink signature of intrinsic complexity: cumulative drift, acceleration/oscillation, and action-gap-induced nonsmoothness. We prove a solver-agnostic path-integral stability bound and derive gap-safe feasible regions that certify local stability away from switch regimes. Building on these results, we introduce textitHomotopy-Tracking RL (HT-RL) and textitHT-MCTS, lightweight wrappers that estimate replay-based proxies of length, curvature, and near-tie proximity online and adapt learning or planning intensity accordingly. Experiments show improved tracking and dynamic regret over matched static baselines, with the largest gains in oscillatory and switch-prone regimes.

Key facts. Cited by 8 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in RL theory and sample complexity, one of 15 directions in Deep reinforcement learning methods. First posted on arXiv 29 Jan 2026.

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