mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

ThinkTank-ME: A Multi-Expert Framework for Middle East Event Forecasting

arXiv 2601.17065 ↗First posted 22 Jan 2026cs.LG cs.AI cs.CLcited by 2

On the map: LLM reasoning → Time series reasoning

Abstract (arXiv)

Event forecasting is inherently influenced by multifaceted considerations, including international relations, regional historical dynamics, and cultural contexts. However, existing LLM-based approaches employ single-model architectures that generate predictions along a singular explicit trajectory, constraining their ability to capture diverse geopolitical nuances across complex regional contexts. To address this limitation, we introduce ThinkTank-ME, a novel Think Tank framework for Middle East event forecasting that emulates collaborative expert analysis in real-world strategic decision-making. To facilitate expert specialization and rigorous evaluation, we construct POLECAT-FOR-ME, a Middle East-focused event forecasting benchmark. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of multi-expert collaboration in handling complex temporal geopolitical forecasting tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/LuminosityX/ThinkTank-ME.

Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Placed in Time series reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 8 of its 23 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 22 Jan 2026.

Builds on

8 of 23 references.

References · 8

  1. 2024The Llama 3 Herd of Modelscited by 14,192
  2. 2024GPT-4o System Cardcited by 4,467
  3. 2024Training Large Language Models to Reason in a Continuous Latent Spacecited by 763
  4. 2024Foundation Models for Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Surveycited by 234
  5. 2024A Survey on Mixture of Experts in Large Language Modelscited by 233
  6. 2025Reasoning Beyond Language: A Comprehensive Survey on Latent Chain-of-Thought Reasoningcited by 72
  7. 2024Analyzing Temporal Complex Events with Large Language Models? A Benchmark towards Temporal, Long Context Understandingcited by 23
  8. 2025Wisdom of the Crowds in Forecasting: Forecast Summarization for Supporting Future Event Predictioncited by 1

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2026: 2.

2 papers.

  1. 2026ForecastAgentSearch: Towards a Multi-Expert Agent Search System for Geopolitical Event Forecastingcited by 1
  2. 2026When AI Navigates the Fog of Warcited by 0

Similar, not cited

Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2024MIRAI: Evaluating LLM Agents for Event Forecasting
  2. 2024Forecasting Future International Events: A Reliable Dataset for Text-Based Event Modeling
  3. 2024MM-Forecast: A Multimodal Approach to Temporal Event Forecasting with Large Language Models
  4. 2024Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models
  5. 2026LLMs as Strategic Actors: Behavioral Alignment, Risk Calibration, and Argumentation Framing in Geopolitical Simulations
  6. 2026Ontological Trajectory Forecasting via Finite Semigroup Iteration and Lie Algebra Approximation in Geopolitical Knowledge Graphs
  7. 2025AlphaCast: A Human Wisdom-LLM Intelligence Co-Reasoning Framework for Interactive Time Series Forecasting
  8. 2025Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting