mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

ForecastAgentSearch: Towards a Multi-Expert Agent Search System for Geopolitical Event Forecasting

arXiv 2606.31665 ↗First posted 30 Jun 2026cs.MAcited by 1

On the map: LLM agents and tool use → Financial trading and forecasting agents

Abstract (arXiv)

Geopolitical event forecasting is a challenging task, as it requires understanding complex regional contexts, dynamic event signals, and uncertain future outcomes. Recent advances in large language model agents provide new opportunities for building forecasting systems that can reason with diverse sources and expert perspectives. In this paper, we present textitForecastAgentSearch, a preliminary framework that formulates geopolitical event forecasting as a multi-expert agent search problem. Given a forecasting query, the system first analyzes the task context, then searches and ranks relevant expert agents based on their regional knowledge, domain expertise, reliability, and complementarity. The selected agents provide specialized analyses, which are further coordinated to generate a final forecast with explanations and uncertainty awareness. We discuss the key design challenges of agent profiling, expert retrieval, ranking, and multi-agent coordination, and outline possible evaluation protocols for future development. This work aims to provide an initial step toward searchable and reliable agent-based forecasting systems.

Key facts. Cited by 1 paper in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Financial trading and forecasting agents, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use. Builds on 7 of its 17 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 30 Jun 2026.

Builds on

7 of 17 references.

Closest ancestors · 1

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2024MIRAI: Evaluating LLM Agents for Event Forecasting1 Jul

Other references · 6

  1. 2023Large Language Modelscited by 780
  2. 2025Retrieval Models Aren't Tool-Savvy: Benchmarking Tool Retrieval for Large Language Modelscited by 47
  3. 2020ForecastQA: A Question Answering Challenge for Event Forecasting with Temporal Text Datacited by 43
  4. 2023Context-aware Event Forecasting via Graph Disentanglementcited by 10
  5. 2024A Comprehensive Evaluation of Large Language Models on Temporal Event Forecastingcited by 8
  6. 2026ThinkTank-ME: A Multi-Expert Framework for Middle East Event Forecastingcited by 2

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Citing papers per year: 2026: 1.

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  1. 2026WorldReasoner: Evaluating Whether Language Model Agents Forecast Events with Valid Reasoning
  2. 2026Distilling Temporal Search and Reasoning: Evolving LLMs for Future Prediction via Harness-Assisted Efficient Data Synthesis
  3. 2026Do Your Own Research: Learning to Forecast by Learning to Search
  4. 2026Agentic Time Machine as an Infrastructure for Future-Event Forecasting
  5. 2026KairosAgent: Agentic Time Series Forecasting with Fused Semantic Reasoning
  6. 2024Reasoning and Tools for Human-Level Forecasting
  7. 2025GeoEvolve: Automating Geospatial Model Discovery via Multi-Agent Large Language Models
  8. 2025Can Competition Enhance the Proficiency of Agents Powered by Large Language Models in the Realm of News-driven Time Series Forecasting?