mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

AI-Trader: Benchmarking Autonomous Agents in Real-Time Financial Markets

arXiv 2512.10971 ↗First posted 1 Dec 2025q-fin.CP cs.CEcited by 25

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Abstract (arXiv)

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential as autonomous agents, approaching human-expert performance through advanced reasoning and tool orchestration. However, decision-making in fully dynamic and live environments remains highly challenging, requiring real-time information integration and adaptive responses. While existing efforts have explored live evaluation mechanisms in structured tasks, a critical gap remains in systematic benchmarking for real-world applications, particularly in finance where stringent requirements exist for live strategic responsiveness. To address this gap, we introduce AI-Trader, the first fully-automated, live, and data-uncontaminated evaluation benchmark for LLM agents in financial decision-making. AI-Trader spans three major financial markets: U.S. stocks, A-shares, and cryptocurrencies, with multiple trading granularities to simulate live financial environments. Our benchmark implements a revolutionary fully autonomous minimal information paradigm where agents receive only essential context and must independently search, verify, and synthesize live market information without human intervention. We evaluate six mainstream LLMs across three markets and multiple trading frequencies. Our analysis reveals striking findings: general intelligence does not automatically translate to effective trading capability, with most agents exhibiting poor returns and weak risk management. We demonstrate that risk control capability determines cross-market robustness, and that AI trading strategies achieve excess returns more readily in highly liquid markets than policy-driven environments. These findings expose critical limitations in current autonomous agents and provide clear directions for future improvements. The code and evaluation data are open-sourced to foster community research: https://github.com/HKUDS/AI-Trader.

Key facts. Cited by 25 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 1 Dec 2025.

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Citing papers per year: 2025: 1; 2026: 24.

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  1. 2026Autonomous Agents on Blockchains: Standards, Execution Models, and Trust Boundariescited by 13
  2. 2026Agentic Trading: When LLM Agents Meet Financial Marketscited by 7
  3. 2026CLQT: A Closed-Loop, Cost-Aware, Strategy-Consistent Benchmark for Diagnostic Evaluation of LLM Portfolio-Management Agentscited by 6
  4. 2026Can LLM Agents Be CFOs? Benchmarking Long-Horizon Resource Allocation in an Uncertain Enterprise Environmentcited by 4
  5. 2026Herculean: An Agentic Benchmark for Financial Intelligencecited by 4
  6. 2026Game-Theoretic Lens on LLM-based Multi-Agent Systemscited by 3
  7. 2026KellyBench: A Benchmark for Long-Horizon Sequential Decision Makingcited by 3
  8. 2026When AI Fails, What Works? A Data-Driven Taxonomy of Real-World AI Risk Mitigation Strategiescited by 2
  9. 2026Reflections and New Directions for Human-Centered Large Language Modelscited by 2
  10. 2026LEAF: A Living Benchmark for Event-Augmented Forecastingcited by 2
  11. 2026Aligning Language Models with Selective Predictioncited by 2
  12. 2025PriceSeer: Evaluating Large Language Models in Real-Time Stock Predictioncited by 1
13 more
  1. 2026Paper Agents, Paper Gains: An Empirical Analysis of DeFi Investment Agentscited by 1
  2. 2026EvolveTrade: Experience-Driven Policy Refinement for Self-Evolving LLM Trading Agentscited by 1
  3. 2026LATTICE: Evaluating Decision Support Utility of Crypto Agentscited by 0
  4. 2026FundaPod: A Multi-Persona Agent Pod Architecture with Knowledge Graph Memory for AI-Assisted Fundamental Investment Researchcited by 0
  5. 2026Beyond Agent Architecture: Execution Assumptions and Reproducibility in LLM-Based Trading Systemscited by 0
  6. 2026Can Agentic Trading Systems Pay for Their Own Intelligence?cited by 0
  7. 2026NextFund: A Unified Performance Tracking Platform for Agentic Portfolio Managementcited by 0
  8. 2026Evaluating Investment Logic in Large Language Models: A Real-World Benchmark Towards Personalzied Financial Agentscited by 0
  9. 2026LiveOption: Evaluating LLM Agents in Structured Option Trading with Nonlinear Payoffscited by 0
  10. 2026PROACT-Agent: Progressive Runtime Oversight and Active Circuit-breaking for Real-Time Safetycited by 0
  11. 2026Can AI Make Money in Crypto? Measuring the Gap from Backtests to Real Marketscited by 0
  12. 2026SEER: Self-Evolving Event Reasoning and Retrieval for Time Series Forecastingcited by 0
  13. 2026LiveMACE: Process-Aware Evaluation of LLM Agent Capabilities in Evolving Marketscited by 0