On the Empirical Power of Goodness-of-Fit Tests in Watermark Detection
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Abstract (arXiv)
Large language models (LLMs) raise concerns about content authenticity and integrity because they can generate human-like text at scale. Text watermarks, which embed detectable statistical signals into generated text, offer a provable way to verify content origin. Many detection methods rely on pivotal statistics that are i.i.d. under human-written text, making goodness-of-fit (GoF) tests a natural tool for watermark detection. However, GoF tests remain largely underexplored in this setting. In this paper, we systematically evaluate eight GoF tests across three popular watermarking schemes, using three open-source LLMs, two datasets, various generation temperatures, and multiple post-editing methods. We find that general GoF tests can improve both the detection power and robustness of watermark detectors. Notably, we observe that text repetition, common in low-temperature settings, gives GoF tests a unique advantage not exploited by existing methods. Our results highlight that classic GoF tests are a simple yet powerful and underused tool for watermark detection in LLMs.
Key facts. Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 35 of its 60 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 4 Oct 2025.
Builds on
35 of 60 references.
References · 35
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23 more
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Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2026: 5.
5 papers.
- 2026Refined Detection for Gumbel Watermarkingcited by 2
- 2026Improving the Trade-off Between Watermark Strength and Speculative Sampling Efficiency for Language Modelscited by 1
- 2026Sample Complexities of Estimating Gumbel--Max Watermark Proportions with and without Reduction to Pivotal Statisticscited by 1
- 2026DenMark: Robust Semantic Watermarking for Diffusion Language Modelscited by 1
- 2026Watermarkable Multi-Draft Speculative Sampling via Poisson Processescited by 0
- 2026Watermarkable Multi-Draft Speculative Sampling via Poisson Processes18 Sep 2026
- 2026DenMark: Robust Semantic Watermarking for Diffusion Language Models13 Sep 2026
- 2026Sample Complexities of Estimating Gumbel--Max Watermark Proportions with and without Reduction to Pivotal Statistics30 Jun 2026
- 2026Refined Detection for Gumbel Watermarking31 Mar 2026
- 2026Improving the Trade-off Between Watermark Strength and Speculative Sampling Efficiency for Language Models1 Feb 2026