Data Valuation and Selection in a Federated Model Marketplace

In the era of Artificial Intelligence (AI), marketplaces have become essential platforms for facilitating the exchange of data products to foster data sharing. Model transactions provide economic solutions in data marketplaces that enhance data reusability and ensure the traceability of data ownership. To establish trustworthy data marketplaces, Federated Learning (FL) has emerged as a promising paradigm to enable collaborative learning across siloed datasets while safeguarding data privacy. However, effective data valuation and selection from heterogeneous sources in the FL setup remain key challenges. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework centered on a Wasserstein-based estimator tailored for FL. The estimator not only predicts model performance across unseen data combinations but also reveals the compatibility between data heterogeneity and FL aggregation algorithms. To ensure privacy, we propose a distributed method to approximate Wasserstein distance without requiring access to raw data. Furthermore, we demonstrate that model performance can be reliably extrapolated under the neural scaling law, enabling effective data selection without full-scale training. Extensive experiments across diverse scenarios, such as label skew, mislabeled, and unlabeled sources, show that our approach consistently identifies high-performing data combinations, paving the way for more reliable FL-based model marketplaces.