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Frequency-Constrained Learning for Long-Term Forecasting

arXiv 2508.01508 ↗First posted 2 Aug 2025cs.LGcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Many real-world time series exhibit strong periodic structures arising from physical laws, human routines, or seasonal cycles. However, modern deep forecasting models often fail to capture these recurring patterns due to spectral bias and a lack of frequency-aware inductive priors. Motivated by this gap, we propose a simple yet effective method that enhances long-term forecasting by explicitly modeling periodicity through spectral initialization and frequency-constrained optimization. Specifically, we extract dominant low-frequency components via Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)-guided coordinate descent, initialize sinusoidal embeddings with these components, and employ a two-speed learning schedule to preserve meaningful frequency structure during training. Our approach is model-agnostic and integrates seamlessly into existing Transformer-based architectures. Extensive experiments across diverse real-world benchmarks demonstrate consistent performance gains--particularly at long horizons--highlighting the benefits of injecting spectral priors into deep temporal models for robust and interpretable long-range forecasting. Moreover, on synthetic data, our method accurately recovers ground-truth frequencies, further validating its interpretability and effectiveness in capturing latent periodic patterns.

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References · 18

  1. 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 60,361
  2. 2021RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embeddingcited by 4,703
  3. 2020Fourier Features Let Networks Learn High Frequency Functions in Low Dimensional Domainscited by 2,200
  4. 2020Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecastingcited by 2,169
  5. 2021Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecastingcited by 1,676
  6. 2020Reformer: The Efficient Transformercited by 1,668
  7. 2018On the Spectral Bias of Neural Networkscited by 1,341
  8. 2022FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecastingcited by 1,210
  9. 2018Self-Attention with Relative Position Representationscited by 1,120
  10. 2016Deep Spatio-Temporal Residual Networks for Citywide Crowd Flows Predictioncited by 333
  11. 2019Evaluating Protein Transfer Learning with TAPEcited by 231
  12. 2019Time2Vec: Learning a Vector Representation of Timecited by 213
6 more
  1. 2024CycleNet: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting through Modeling Periodic Patternscited by 106
  2. 2018RobustSTL: A Robust Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Algorithm for Long Time Seriescited by 54
  3. 2020From Fourier to Koopman: Spectral Methods for Long-term Time Series Predictioncited by 50
  4. 2024Time Series Diffusion in the Frequency Domaincited by 37
  5. 2023Probabilistic Traffic Forecasting with Dynamic Regressioncited by 4
  6. 2025Dynamic Modes as Time Representation for Spatiotemporal Forecastingcited by 1

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