mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Humans overrely on overconfident language models, across languages

arXiv 2507.06306 ↗First posted 8 Jul 2025cs.CL cs.AI cs.HCcited by 3

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Abstract (arXiv)

As large language models (LLMs) are deployed globally, it is crucial that their responses are calibrated across languages to accurately convey uncertainty and limitations. Prior work shows that LLMs are linguistically overconfident in English, leading users to overrely on confident generations. However, the usage and interpretation of epistemic markers (e.g., 'I think it's') differs sharply across languages. Here, we study the risks of multilingual linguistic (mis)calibration, overconfidence, and overreliance across five languages to evaluate LLM safety in a global context. Our work finds that overreliance risks are high across languages. We first analyze the distribution of LLM-generated epistemic markers and observe that LLMs are overconfident across languages, frequently generating strengtheners even as part of incorrect responses. Model generations are, however, sensitive to documented cross-linguistic variation in usage: for example, models generate the most markers of uncertainty in Japanese and the most markers of certainty in German and Mandarin. Next, we measure human reliance rates across languages, finding that reliance behaviors differ cross-linguistically: for example, participants are significantly more likely to discount expressions of uncertainty in Japanese than in English (i.e., ignore their 'hedging' function and rely on generations that contain them). Taken together, these results indicate a high risk of reliance on overconfident model generations across languages. Our findings highlight the challenges of multilingual linguistic calibration and stress the importance of culturally and linguistically contextualized model safety evaluations.

Key facts. Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 26 of its 45 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 8 Jul 2025.

Builds on

26 of 45 references.

References · 26

  1. 2024The Llama 3 Herd of Modelscited by 14,715
  2. 2020Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understandingcited by 7,963
  3. 2024GPT-4o System Cardcited by 4,588
  4. 2022Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Knowcited by 1,856
  5. 2023Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMscited by 974
  6. 2023Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedbackcited by 812
  7. 2022Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Wordscited by 751
  8. 2019How multilingual is Multilingual BERT?cited by 645
  9. 2020How Can We Know When Language Models Know? On the Calibration of Language Models for Question Answeringcited by 445
  10. 2020Calibration of Pre-trained Transformerscited by 315
  11. 2024Do Llamas Work in English? On the Latent Language of Multilingual Transformerscited by 281
  12. 2020Selective Question Answering under Domain Shiftcited by 238
14 more
  1. 2020Reducing conversational agents' overconfidence through linguistic calibrationcited by 210
  2. 2024Relying on the Unreliable: The Impact of Language Models' Reluctance to Express Uncertaintycited by 106
  3. 2023Navigating the Grey Area: How Expressions of Uncertainty and Overconfidence Affect Language Modelscited by 91
  4. 2025Do Multilingual LLMs Think In English?cited by 78
  5. 2023Cognitive Dissonance: Why Do Language Model Outputs Disagree with Internal Representations of Truthfulness?cited by 62
  6. 2021How to Adapt Your Pretrained Multilingual Model to 1600 Languagescited by 54
  7. 2024Should We Respect LLMs? A Cross-Lingual Study on the Influence of Prompt Politeness on LLM Performancecited by 41
  8. 2025Fostering Appropriate Reliance on Large Language Models: The Role of Explanations, Sources, and Inconsistenciescited by 39
  9. 2015Transfer Learning for Speech and Language Processingcited by 35
  10. 2023Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Modelscited by 32
  11. 2023A Diachronic Perspective on User Trust in AI under Uncertaintycited by 23
  12. 2020Calibrating Structured Output Predictors for Natural Language Processingcited by 17
  13. 2024Rel-A.I.: An Interaction-Centered Approach To Measuring Human-LM Reliancecited by 16
  14. 2024LACIE: Listener-Aware Finetuning for Confidence Calibration in Large Language Modelscited by 15

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 1; 2026: 2.

3 papers.

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  1. 2026Rethinking Uncertainty Evaluation in Large Language Models
  2. 2025Assessing Agentic Large Language Models in Multilingual National Bias
  3. 2026Beliefs and Behavior in Language Models
  4. 2026Different Facets of Verbalised Overconfidence: an Interpretability Study
  5. 2024The Language Barrier: Dissecting Safety Challenges of LLMs in Multilingual Contexts
  6. 2025Knowing What You Know Is Not Enough: Large Language Model Confidences Don't Align With Their Actions
  7. 2024An Evaluation of Estimative Uncertainty in Large Language Models
  8. 2025Multilingual != Multicultural: Evaluating Gaps Between Multilingual Capabilities and Cultural Alignment in LLMs