mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

A Head to Predict and a Head to Question: Pre-trained Uncertainty Quantification Heads for Hallucination Detection in LLM Outputs

arXiv 2505.08200 ↗First posted 13 May 2025cs.CL cs.AIcited by 21

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Abstract (arXiv)

Large Language Models (LLMs) have the tendency to hallucinate, i.e., to sporadically generate false or fabricated information. This presents a major challenge, as hallucinations often appear highly convincing and users generally lack the tools to detect them. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides a framework for assessing the reliability of model outputs, aiding in the identification of potential hallucinations. In this work, we introduce pre-trained UQ heads: supervised auxiliary modules for LLMs that substantially enhance their ability to capture uncertainty compared to unsupervised UQ methods. Their strong performance stems from the powerful Transformer architecture in their design and informative features derived from LLM attention maps. Experimental evaluation shows that these heads are highly robust and achieve state-of-the-art performance in claim-level hallucination detection across both in-domain and out-of-domain prompts. Moreover, these modules demonstrate strong generalization to languages they were not explicitly trained on. We pre-train a collection of UQ heads for popular LLM series, including Mistral, Llama, and Gemma 2. We publicly release both the code and the pre-trained heads.

Key facts. Cited by 21 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 23 of its 45 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 13 May 2025.

Builds on

23 of 45 references.

References · 23

  1. 2024The Llama 3 Herd of Modelscited by 14,715
  2. 2015Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learningcited by 4,448
  3. 2021TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoodscited by 2,975
  4. 2022Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Knowcited by 1,856
  5. 2023FActScore: Fine-grained Atomic Evaluation of Factual Precision in Long Form Text Generationcited by 1,282
  6. 2023Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedbackcited by 812
  7. 2023The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lyingcited by 659
  8. 2023A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Modelscited by 256
  9. 2022Out-of-Distribution Detection and Selective Generation for Conditional Language Modelscited by 197
  10. 2024Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 162
  11. 2024Lookback Lens: Detecting and Mitigating Contextual Hallucinations in Large Language Models Using Only Attention Mapscited by 142
  12. 2023LM-Polygraph: Uncertainty Estimation for Language Modelscited by 131
11 more
  1. 2024Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Large Language Models with LM-Polygraphcited by 105
  2. 2023Enhancing Uncertainty-Based Hallucination Detection with Stronger Focuscited by 99
  3. 2024LUQ: Long-text Uncertainty Quantification for LLMscited by 81
  4. 2023Attention Satisfies: A Constraint-Satisfaction Lens on Factual Errors of Language Modelscited by 67
  5. 2023Do Androids Know They're Only Dreaming of Electric Sheep?cited by 67
  6. 2023Uncertainty in Natural Language Generation: From Theory to Applicationscited by 61
  7. 2023The Curious Case of Hallucinatory (Un)answerability: Finding Truths in the Hidden States of Over-Confident Large Language Modelscited by 55
  8. 2024Hallucination Detection: Robustly Discerning Reliable Answers in Large Language Modelscited by 44
  9. 2024Atomic Calibration of LLMs in Long-Form Generationscited by 24
  10. 2019Mitigating Uncertainty in Document Classificationcited by 22
  11. 2023Uncertainty Estimation on Sequential Labeling via Uncertainty Transmissioncited by 10

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Citing papers per year: 2025: 3; 2026: 18.

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  1. 2025HaluMem: Evaluating Hallucinations in Memory Systems of Agentscited by 54
  2. 2025Large Language Models Hallucination: A Comprehensive Surveycited by 49
  3. 2026Confidence Estimation for LLMs in Multi-turn Interactionscited by 12
  4. 2025On the Fundamental Impossibility of Hallucination Control in Large Language Modelscited by 7
  5. 2026Calibration Is Not Enough: Evaluating Confidence Estimation Under Language Variationscited by 3
  6. 2026From Signals to Transfer: A Factorised Study of Probe-Based Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Modelscited by 2
  7. 2026CrossHallu: Do Hallucination Signals Generalize Across Languages and Domains in Large Language Model's Internals?cited by 2
  8. 2026Probing for Knowledge Attribution in Large Language Modelscited by 1
  9. 2026Leveraging LLM Parametric Knowledge for Fact Checking without Retrievalcited by 1
  10. 2026A Robust Evaluation of Probe Robustness: Lessons for Reliable OOD Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 1
  11. 2026Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Improving Factuality of Generations by Large Language Modelscited by 1
  12. 2026Learning Uncertainty from Sequential Internal Dispersion in Large Language Modelscited by 1
9 more
  1. 2026Shared Doubt: Zero-Shot Cross-Lingual Confidence Estimation for Language Modelscited by 1
  2. 2026Failing to See or Failing to Know? Attributing Errors in Vision-Language Modelscited by 1
  3. 2026Fact-Checking with Large Language Models via Probabilistic Certainty and Consistencycited by 0
  4. 2026From Retinal Evidence to Safe Decisions: RETINA-SAFE and ECRT for Hallucination Risk Triage in Medical LLMscited by 0
  5. 2026DECK: A Consistency x Confidence Taxonomy of LLM Hallucinationscited by 0
  6. 2026Beyond Semantic Equivalence: Logical Graphs for LLM Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 0
  7. 2026Pinocchio: Fast Uncertainty Estimates for Black-Box Language Modelscited by 0
  8. 2026ChainUQ: Reasoning Consistency-Aware Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Modelscited by 0
  9. 2026Single-Pass Uncertainty Heads for Claim-Level Hallucination Detection in Persian Medical Language Modelscited by 0