mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

CER: Confidence Enhanced Reasoning in LLMs

arXiv 2502.14634 ↗First posted 20 Feb 2025cs.LGcited by 16

On the map: LLM reasoning → Test-time compute and efficient thinking

Abstract (arXiv)

Ensuring the reliability of Large Language Models (LLMs) in complex reasoning tasks remains a formidable challenge, particularly in scenarios that demand precise mathematical calculations and knowledge-intensive open-domain generation. In this work, we introduce an uncertainty-aware framework designed to enhance the accuracy of LLM responses by systematically incorporating model confidence at critical decision points. We propose an approach that encourages multi-step reasoning in LLMs and quantify the confidence of intermediate answers such as numerical results in mathematical reasoning and proper nouns in open-domain generation. Then, the overall confidence of each reasoning chain is evaluated based on confidence of these critical intermediate steps. Finally, we aggregate the answer of generated response paths in a way that reflects the reliability of each generated content (as opposed to self-consistency in which each generated chain contributes equally to majority voting). We conducted extensive experiments in five datasets, three mathematical datasets and two open-domain datasets, using four LLMs. The results consistently validate the effectiveness of our novel confidence aggregation method, leading to an accuracy improvement of up to 7.4% and 5.8% over baseline approaches in math and open-domain generation tasks, respectively. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ Aquasar11/CER.

Key facts. Cited by 16 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 42 of its 56 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 20 Feb 2025.

Builds on

42 of 56 references.

Closest ancestors · 1

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2022Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know11 Jul

Other references · 41

  1. 2020Language Models are Few-Shot Learnerscited by 32,199
  2. 2023GPT-4 Technical Reportcited by 18,132
  3. 2024The Llama 3 Herd of Modelscited by 14,192
  4. 2021Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problemscited by 9,743
  5. 2022ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Modelscited by 8,355
  6. 2022Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Modelscited by 5,601
  7. 2021Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Datasetcited by 5,203
  8. 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,860
  9. 2022Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasonerscited by 4,323
  10. 2018HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answeringcited by 3,686
  11. 2023Mistral 7Bcited by 3,065
  12. 2017TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehensioncited by 2,895
29 more
  1. 2022Least-to-Most Prompting Enables Complex Reasoning in Large Language Modelscited by 1,397
  2. 2022Program of Thoughts Prompting: Disentangling Computation from Reasoning for Numerical Reasoning Taskscited by 1,057
  3. 2023Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMscited by 946
  4. 2023Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedbackcited by 788
  5. 2022Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Wordscited by 731
  6. 2019MathQA: Towards Interpretable Math Word Problem Solving with Operation-Based Formalismscited by 653
  7. 2023The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lyingcited by 644
  8. 2024OLMo: Accelerating the Science of Language Modelscited by 599
  9. 2015Weight Uncertainty in Neural Networkscited by 554
  10. 2022Decomposed Prompting: A Modular Approach for Solving Complex Taskscited by 554
  11. 2022Large Language Models are Better Reasoners with Self-Verificationcited by 304
  12. 2022Demystifying Prompts in Language Models via Perplexity Estimationcited by 215
  13. 2024Chain-of-Thought Reasoning Without Promptingcited by 208
  14. 2024Do Large Language Models Latently Perform Multi-Hop Reasoning?cited by 165
  15. 2024Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 159
  16. 2024Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similaritiescited by 156
  17. 2023Deductive Verification of Chain-of-Thought Reasoningcited by 122
  18. 2023Quantifying Uncertainty in Answers from any Language Model and Enhancing their Trustworthinesscited by 121
  19. 2018Correcting Length Bias in Neural Machine Translationcited by 119
  20. 2023Hypothesis Search: Inductive Reasoning with Language Modelscited by 119
  21. 2022Successive Prompting for Decomposing Complex Questionscited by 94
  22. 2023SAC3: Reliable Hallucination Detection in Black-Box Language Models via Semantic-aware Cross-check Consistencycited by 89
  23. 2024Planning In Natural Language Improves LLM Search For Code Generationcited by 79
  24. 2023Overthinking the Truth: Understanding how Language Models Process False Demonstrationscited by 78
  25. 2023Active Learning Principles for In-Context Learning with Large Language Modelscited by 53
  26. 2020Towards Trustworthy Predictions from Deep Neural Networks with Fast Adversarial Calibrationcited by 34
  27. 2024I Don't Know: Explicit Modeling of Uncertainty with an [IDK] Tokencited by 26
  28. 2024Husky: A Unified, Open-Source Language Agent for Multi-Step Reasoningcited by 16
  29. 2024Unlocking the Power of LLM Uncertainty for Active In-Context Example Selectioncited by 8

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 8; 2026: 8.

16 papers.

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  1. 2025Towards Reasoning Era: A Survey of Long Chain-of-Thought for Reasoning Large Language Modelscited by 381
  2. 2025Generative to Agentic AI: Survey, Conceptualization, and Challengescited by 32
  3. 2025Debate Only When Necessary: Adaptive Multiagent Collaboration for Efficient LLM Reasoningcited by 27
  4. 2025TokUR: Token-Level Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Model Reasoningcited by 24
  5. 2025Guided by Gut: Efficient Test-Time Scaling with Reinforced Intrinsic Confidencecited by 8
  6. 2025Selective Expert Guidance for Effective and Diverse Exploration in Reinforcement Learning of LLMscited by 7
  7. 2026Quantifying Faithful Confidence Expression in Large Reasoning Modelscited by 2
  8. 2026Beyond Memory Majority: Latent-Source Reasoning for Multi-Agent Memory Arbitrationcited by 2
  9. 2025Bonsai: Interpretable Tree-Adaptive Grounded Reasoningcited by 1
  10. 2026From Passive Metric to Active Signal: The Evolving Role of Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Modelscited by 1
  11. 2026Learning When to Sample: Confidence-Aware Selective Sampling for Efficient Chain-of-Thought Reasoningcited by 1
  12. 2026Confidence-Aware Alignment Makes Reasoning LLMs More Reliablecited by 1
4 more
  1. 2026Shared Doubt: Zero-Shot Cross-Lingual Confidence Estimation for Language Modelscited by 1
  2. 2025CMaP-SAM: Contraction Mapping Prior for SAM-driven Few-shot Segmentationcited by 0
  3. 2026Training-Free Object-Background Compositional T2I via Dynamic Spatial Guidance and Multi-Path Pruningcited by 0
  4. 2026Confidence Composition for Multiagent Language Model Systemscited by 0

Similar, not cited

Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2025ReliableMath: Benchmark of Reliable Mathematical Reasoning on Large Language Models
  2. 2025Open the Oyster: Empirical Evaluation and Improvement of Code Reasoning Confidence in LLMs
  3. 2026Probability is Not Enough: Exploring and Counting Divergent Tokens for Reasoning Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs
  4. 2024Confidence in the Reasoning of Large Language Models
  5. 2026Can LLM Reasoning Be Trusted? A Comparative Study: Using Human Benchmarking on Statistical Tasks
  6. 2026Unsupervised Confidence Calibration for Reasoning LLMs from a Single Generation
  7. 2024Are Your LLMs Capable of Stable Reasoning?
  8. 2025Mathematical Reasoning in Large Language Models: Assessing Logical and Arithmetic Errors across Wide Numerical Ranges