CER: Confidence Enhanced Reasoning in LLMs
On the map: LLM reasoning → Test-time compute and efficient thinking
Abstract (arXiv)
Ensuring the reliability of Large Language Models (LLMs) in complex reasoning tasks remains a formidable challenge, particularly in scenarios that demand precise mathematical calculations and knowledge-intensive open-domain generation. In this work, we introduce an uncertainty-aware framework designed to enhance the accuracy of LLM responses by systematically incorporating model confidence at critical decision points. We propose an approach that encourages multi-step reasoning in LLMs and quantify the confidence of intermediate answers such as numerical results in mathematical reasoning and proper nouns in open-domain generation. Then, the overall confidence of each reasoning chain is evaluated based on confidence of these critical intermediate steps. Finally, we aggregate the answer of generated response paths in a way that reflects the reliability of each generated content (as opposed to self-consistency in which each generated chain contributes equally to majority voting). We conducted extensive experiments in five datasets, three mathematical datasets and two open-domain datasets, using four LLMs. The results consistently validate the effectiveness of our novel confidence aggregation method, leading to an accuracy improvement of up to 7.4% and 5.8% over baseline approaches in math and open-domain generation tasks, respectively. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ Aquasar11/CER.
Key facts. Cited by 16 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 42 of its 56 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 20 Feb 2025.
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Other references · 41
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- 2021Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Datasetcited by 5,203
- 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,860
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- 2018HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answeringcited by 3,686
- 2023Mistral 7Bcited by 3,065
- 2017TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehensioncited by 2,895
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- 2022Program of Thoughts Prompting: Disentangling Computation from Reasoning for Numerical Reasoning Taskscited by 1,057
- 2023Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMscited by 946
- 2023Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedbackcited by 788
- 2022Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Wordscited by 731
- 2019MathQA: Towards Interpretable Math Word Problem Solving with Operation-Based Formalismscited by 653
- 2023The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lyingcited by 644
- 2024OLMo: Accelerating the Science of Language Modelscited by 599
- 2015Weight Uncertainty in Neural Networkscited by 554
- 2022Decomposed Prompting: A Modular Approach for Solving Complex Taskscited by 554
- 2022Large Language Models are Better Reasoners with Self-Verificationcited by 304
- 2022Demystifying Prompts in Language Models via Perplexity Estimationcited by 215
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- 2024Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 159
- 2024Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similaritiescited by 156
- 2023Deductive Verification of Chain-of-Thought Reasoningcited by 122
- 2023Quantifying Uncertainty in Answers from any Language Model and Enhancing their Trustworthinesscited by 121
- 2018Correcting Length Bias in Neural Machine Translationcited by 119
- 2023Hypothesis Search: Inductive Reasoning with Language Modelscited by 119
- 2022Successive Prompting for Decomposing Complex Questionscited by 94
- 2023SAC3: Reliable Hallucination Detection in Black-Box Language Models via Semantic-aware Cross-check Consistencycited by 89
- 2024Planning In Natural Language Improves LLM Search For Code Generationcited by 79
- 2023Overthinking the Truth: Understanding how Language Models Process False Demonstrationscited by 78
- 2023Active Learning Principles for In-Context Learning with Large Language Modelscited by 53
- 2020Towards Trustworthy Predictions from Deep Neural Networks with Fast Adversarial Calibrationcited by 34
- 2024I Don't Know: Explicit Modeling of Uncertainty with an [IDK] Tokencited by 26
- 2024Husky: A Unified, Open-Source Language Agent for Multi-Step Reasoningcited by 16
- 2024Unlocking the Power of LLM Uncertainty for Active In-Context Example Selectioncited by 8
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Citing papers per year: 2025: 8; 2026: 8.
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- 2025Towards Reasoning Era: A Survey of Long Chain-of-Thought for Reasoning Large Language Modelscited by 381
- 2025Generative to Agentic AI: Survey, Conceptualization, and Challengescited by 32
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- 2025TokUR: Token-Level Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Model Reasoningcited by 24
- 2025Guided by Gut: Efficient Test-Time Scaling with Reinforced Intrinsic Confidencecited by 8
- 2025Selective Expert Guidance for Effective and Diverse Exploration in Reinforcement Learning of LLMscited by 7
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- 2026Quantifying Faithful Confidence Expression in Large Reasoning Models2 Jun 2026
- 2026Shared Doubt: Zero-Shot Cross-Lingual Confidence Estimation for Language Models29 May 2026
- 2026Confidence-Aware Alignment Makes Reasoning LLMs More Reliable8 May 2026
- 2026Training-Free Object-Background Compositional T2I via Dynamic Spatial Guidance and Multi-Path Pruning10 Apr 2026
- 2026Learning When to Sample: Confidence-Aware Selective Sampling for Efficient Chain-of-Thought Reasoning9 Mar 2026
- 2026From Passive Metric to Active Signal: The Evolving Role of Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models22 Jan 2026
- 2025Selective Expert Guidance for Effective and Diverse Exploration in Reinforcement Learning of LLMs5 Oct 2025
- 2025Guided by Gut: Efficient Test-Time Scaling with Reinforced Intrinsic Confidence23 May 2025
- 2025TokUR: Token-Level Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Model Reasoning16 May 2025
- 2025Generative to Agentic AI: Survey, Conceptualization, and Challenges26 Apr 2025
4 more
- 2025CMaP-SAM: Contraction Mapping Prior for SAM-driven Few-shot Segmentation7 Apr 2025
- 2025Debate Only When Necessary: Adaptive Multiagent Collaboration for Efficient LLM Reasoning7 Apr 2025
- 2025Bonsai: Interpretable Tree-Adaptive Grounded Reasoning4 Apr 2025
- 2025Towards Reasoning Era: A Survey of Long Chain-of-Thought for Reasoning Large Language Models12 Mar 2025
- 2025Towards Reasoning Era: A Survey of Long Chain-of-Thought for Reasoning Large Language Modelscited by 381
- 2025Debate Only When Necessary: Adaptive Multiagent Collaboration for Efficient LLM Reasoningcited by 27
- 2025TokUR: Token-Level Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Model Reasoningcited by 24
- 2025Guided by Gut: Efficient Test-Time Scaling with Reinforced Intrinsic Confidencecited by 8
- 2025Selective Expert Guidance for Effective and Diverse Exploration in Reinforcement Learning of LLMscited by 7
- 2026Quantifying Faithful Confidence Expression in Large Reasoning Modelscited by 2
- 2026Learning When to Sample: Confidence-Aware Selective Sampling for Efficient Chain-of-Thought Reasoningcited by 1
- 2026Confidence-Aware Alignment Makes Reasoning LLMs More Reliablecited by 1
- 2026Confidence Composition for Multiagent Language Model Systemscited by 0
- 2026Confidence Composition for Multiagent Language Model Systems11 Jun 2026
- 2026Quantifying Faithful Confidence Expression in Large Reasoning Models2 Jun 2026
- 2026Confidence-Aware Alignment Makes Reasoning LLMs More Reliable8 May 2026
- 2026Learning When to Sample: Confidence-Aware Selective Sampling for Efficient Chain-of-Thought Reasoning9 Mar 2026
- 2025Selective Expert Guidance for Effective and Diverse Exploration in Reinforcement Learning of LLMs5 Oct 2025
- 2025Guided by Gut: Efficient Test-Time Scaling with Reinforced Intrinsic Confidence23 May 2025
- 2025TokUR: Token-Level Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Model Reasoning16 May 2025
- 2025Debate Only When Necessary: Adaptive Multiagent Collaboration for Efficient LLM Reasoning7 Apr 2025
- 2025Towards Reasoning Era: A Survey of Long Chain-of-Thought for Reasoning Large Language Models12 Mar 2025
- 2026Beyond Memory Majority: Latent-Source Reasoning for Multi-Agent Memory Arbitrationcited by 2
- 2025Bonsai: Interpretable Tree-Adaptive Grounded Reasoningcited by 1
- 2026From Passive Metric to Active Signal: The Evolving Role of Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Modelscited by 1
- 2026Shared Doubt: Zero-Shot Cross-Lingual Confidence Estimation for Language Modelscited by 1
- 2025CMaP-SAM: Contraction Mapping Prior for SAM-driven Few-shot Segmentationcited by 0
- 2026Beyond Memory Majority: Latent-Source Reasoning for Multi-Agent Memory Arbitration20 Aug 2026
- 2026Shared Doubt: Zero-Shot Cross-Lingual Confidence Estimation for Language Models29 May 2026
- 2026From Passive Metric to Active Signal: The Evolving Role of Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models22 Jan 2026
- 2025CMaP-SAM: Contraction Mapping Prior for SAM-driven Few-shot Segmentation7 Apr 2025
- 2025Bonsai: Interpretable Tree-Adaptive Grounded Reasoning4 Apr 2025
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- 2025ReliableMath: Benchmark of Reliable Mathematical Reasoning on Large Language Models
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- 2026Probability is Not Enough: Exploring and Counting Divergent Tokens for Reasoning Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs
- 2024Confidence in the Reasoning of Large Language Models
- 2026Can LLM Reasoning Be Trusted? A Comparative Study: Using Human Benchmarking on Statistical Tasks
- 2026Unsupervised Confidence Calibration for Reasoning LLMs from a Single Generation
- 2024Are Your LLMs Capable of Stable Reasoning?
- 2025Mathematical Reasoning in Large Language Models: Assessing Logical and Arithmetic Errors across Wide Numerical Ranges