Near-Optimal Algorithms for Omniprediction
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Abstract (arXiv)
Omnipredictors are simple prediction functions that encode loss-minimizing predictions with respect to a hypothesis class H, simultaneously for every loss function within a class of losses L. In this work, we give near-optimal learning algorithms for omniprediction, in both the online and offline settings. To begin, we give an oracle-efficient online learning algorithm that acheives (L,H)-omniprediction with tilde O (√T log |H|) regret for any class of Lipschitz loss functions L subseteq LLip. Quite surprisingly, this regret bound matches the optimal regret for minimization of a single loss function (up to a √log(T) factor). Given this online algorithm, we develop an online-to-offline conversion that achieves near-optimal complexity across a number of measures. In particular, for all bounded loss functions within the class of Bounded Variation losses LBV (which include all convex, all Lipschitz, and all proper losses) and any (possibly-infinite) H, we obtain an offline learning algorithm that, leveraging an (offline) ERM oracle and m samples from D, returns an efficient (LBV,H,ε(m))-omnipredictor for varepsilon(m) scaling near-linearly in the Rademacher complexity of a class derived from H by taking convex combinations of a fixed number of elements of Th circ H.
Key facts. Cited by 33 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 28 Jan 2025.
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Citing papers per year: 2025: 18; 2026: 15.
33 papers.
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- 2025Simultaneous Swap Regret Minimization via KL-Calibrationcited by 11
- 2025Revisiting the Predictability of Performative, Social Eventscited by 11
- 2025Can a calibration metric be both testable and actionable?cited by 10
- 2025How Global Calibration Strengthens Multiaccuracycited by 8
- 2025When does a predictor know its own loss?cited by 7
- 2025In Defense of Defensive Forecastingcited by 5
- 2025Generalized and Unified Equivalences between Hardness and Pseudoentropycited by 5
- 2025Improved Bounds for Swap Multicalibration and Swap Omnipredictioncited by 4
- 2025A Perfectly Truthful Calibration Measurecited by 4
- 2025Calibration through the Lens of Indistinguishabilitycited by 4
- 2025Sample-Efficient Omniprediction for Proper Lossescited by 4
- 2025Efficient Swap Multicalibration of Elicitable Propertiescited by 4
21 more
- 2025Robust Decision Making with Partially Calibrated Forecastscited by 3
- 2025Efficient Calibration for Decision Makingcited by 3
- 2026Simultaneous Blackwell Approachability and Applications to Multiclass Omnipredictioncited by 3
- 2026An Efficient Black-Box Reduction from Online Learning to Multicalibration, and a New Route to Phi-Regret Minimizationcited by 3
- 2026TCS-BENCH: Benchmarking State-of-the-Art Generative AI Theoretical Computer Science Research Abilitycited by 3
- 2025Dimension-Free Decision Calibration for Nonlinear Loss Functionscited by 2
- 2025Online Omniprediction with Long-Term Constraintscited by 2
- 2026Group-realizable multi-group learning by minimizing empirical riskcited by 2
- 2026Defensive Generationcited by 1
- 2026Testable and Actionable Calibration for Full Swap Regretcited by 1
- 2026Toward Simultaneously Optimal Regret in U-Calibrationcited by 1
- 2026Optimal Deterministic Multicalibration and Omnipredictioncited by 1
- 2026Optimal Recalibration of an Online Predictorcited by 1
- 2025Auditability and the Landscape of Distance to Multicalibrationcited by 0
- 2025Dynamic Regret Bounds for Online Omniprediction with Long Term Constraintscited by 0
- 2026Locally Adaptive Multi-Objective Learningcited by 0
- 2026Efficient Opportunistic Approachabilitycited by 0
- 2026Flexible Routing via Uncertainty Decompositioncited by 0
- 2026Calibration without labels in multiple testingcited by 0
- 2026Blackwell Approachability and Gradient Equilibrium are Equivalentcited by 0
- 2026Fast Rates for Swap-Agnostic Learning of Proper Lossescited by 0
- 2026TCS-BENCH: Benchmarking State-of-the-Art Generative AI Theoretical Computer Science Research Ability10 Aug 2026
- 2026Fast Rates for Swap-Agnostic Learning of Proper Losses30 Jul 2026
- 2026Optimal Recalibration of an Online Predictor22 Jul 2026
- 2026Blackwell Approachability and Gradient Equilibrium are Equivalent25 Jun 2026
- 2026Optimal Deterministic Multicalibration and Omniprediction18 Jun 2026
- 2026Calibration without labels in multiple testing18 Jun 2026
- 2026Toward Simultaneously Optimal Regret in U-Calibration16 Jun 2026
- 2026Testable and Actionable Calibration for Full Swap Regret18 May 2026
- 2026Flexible Routing via Uncertainty Decomposition8 May 2026
- 2026An Efficient Black-Box Reduction from Online Learning to Multicalibration, and a New Route to Phi-Regret Minimization21 Apr 2026
- 2026Defensive Generation24 Feb 2026
- 2026Efficient Opportunistic Approachability24 Feb 2026
21 more
- 2026Simultaneous Blackwell Approachability and Applications to Multiclass Omniprediction19 Feb 2026
- 2026Locally Adaptive Multi-Objective Learning16 Feb 2026
- 2026Group-realizable multi-group learning by minimizing empirical risk23 Jan 2026
- 2025Efficient Calibration for Decision Making17 Nov 2025
- 2025Efficient Swap Multicalibration of Elicitable Properties7 Nov 2025
- 2025Robust Decision Making with Partially Calibrated Forecasts27 Oct 2025
- 2025Sample-Efficient Omniprediction for Proper Losses14 Oct 2025
- 2025Dynamic Regret Bounds for Online Omniprediction with Long Term Constraints8 Oct 2025
- 2025Auditability and the Landscape of Distance to Multicalibration21 Sep 2025
- 2025Online Omniprediction with Long-Term Constraints14 Sep 2025
- 2025Calibration through the Lens of Indistinguishability2 Sep 2025
- 2025A Perfectly Truthful Calibration Measure18 Aug 2025
- 2025Generalized and Unified Equivalences between Hardness and Pseudoentropy8 Jul 2025
- 2025In Defense of Defensive Forecasting13 Jun 2025
- 2025Improved Bounds for Swap Multicalibration and Swap Omniprediction27 May 2025
- 2025Dimension-Free Decision Calibration for Nonlinear Loss Functions22 Apr 2025
- 2025How Global Calibration Strengthens Multiaccuracy21 Apr 2025
- 2025Revisiting the Predictability of Performative, Social Events12 Mar 2025
- 2025When does a predictor know its own loss?27 Feb 2025
- 2025Can a calibration metric be both testable and actionable?27 Feb 2025
- 2025Simultaneous Swap Regret Minimization via KL-Calibration23 Feb 2025
- 2025Simultaneous Swap Regret Minimization via KL-Calibrationcited by 11
- 2025Revisiting the Predictability of Performative, Social Eventscited by 11
- 2025Can a calibration metric be both testable and actionable?cited by 10
- 2025How Global Calibration Strengthens Multiaccuracycited by 8
- 2025When does a predictor know its own loss?cited by 7
- 2025In Defense of Defensive Forecastingcited by 5
- 2025Generalized and Unified Equivalences between Hardness and Pseudoentropycited by 5
- 2025Improved Bounds for Swap Multicalibration and Swap Omnipredictioncited by 4
- 2025A Perfectly Truthful Calibration Measurecited by 4
- 2025Calibration through the Lens of Indistinguishabilitycited by 4
- 2025Sample-Efficient Omniprediction for Proper Lossescited by 4
- 2025Efficient Swap Multicalibration of Elicitable Propertiescited by 4
12 most cited of 33 All 33 (JSON)
- 2026TCS-BENCH: Benchmarking State-of-the-Art Generative AI Theoretical Computer Science Research Ability10 Aug 2026
- 2026Fast Rates for Swap-Agnostic Learning of Proper Losses30 Jul 2026
- 2026Optimal Recalibration of an Online Predictor22 Jul 2026
- 2026Blackwell Approachability and Gradient Equilibrium are Equivalent25 Jun 2026
- 2026Optimal Deterministic Multicalibration and Omniprediction18 Jun 2026
- 2026Calibration without labels in multiple testing18 Jun 2026
- 2026Toward Simultaneously Optimal Regret in U-Calibration16 Jun 2026
- 2026Testable and Actionable Calibration for Full Swap Regret18 May 2026
- 2026Flexible Routing via Uncertainty Decomposition8 May 2026
- 2026An Efficient Black-Box Reduction from Online Learning to Multicalibration, and a New Route to Phi-Regret Minimization21 Apr 2026
- 2026Defensive Generation24 Feb 2026
- 2026Efficient Opportunistic Approachability24 Feb 2026
12 newest of 33 All 33 (JSON)