mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Near-Optimal Algorithms for Omniprediction

arXiv 2501.17205 ↗First posted 28 Jan 2025stat.ML cs.DS cs.LGcited by 33

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Abstract (arXiv)

Omnipredictors are simple prediction functions that encode loss-minimizing predictions with respect to a hypothesis class H, simultaneously for every loss function within a class of losses L. In this work, we give near-optimal learning algorithms for omniprediction, in both the online and offline settings. To begin, we give an oracle-efficient online learning algorithm that acheives (L,H)-omniprediction with tilde O (√T log |H|) regret for any class of Lipschitz loss functions L subseteq LLip. Quite surprisingly, this regret bound matches the optimal regret for minimization of a single loss function (up to a √log(T) factor). Given this online algorithm, we develop an online-to-offline conversion that achieves near-optimal complexity across a number of measures. In particular, for all bounded loss functions within the class of Bounded Variation losses LBV (which include all convex, all Lipschitz, and all proper losses) and any (possibly-infinite) H, we obtain an offline learning algorithm that, leveraging an (offline) ERM oracle and m samples from D, returns an efficient (LBV,H,ε(m))-omnipredictor for varepsilon(m) scaling near-linearly in the Rademacher complexity of a class derived from H by taking convex combinations of a fixed number of elements of Th circ H.

Key facts. Cited by 33 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 28 Jan 2025.

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Citing papers per year: 2025: 18; 2026: 15.

33 papers.

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  1. 2025Simultaneous Swap Regret Minimization via KL-Calibrationcited by 11
  2. 2025Revisiting the Predictability of Performative, Social Eventscited by 11
  3. 2025Can a calibration metric be both testable and actionable?cited by 10
  4. 2025How Global Calibration Strengthens Multiaccuracycited by 8
  5. 2025When does a predictor know its own loss?cited by 7
  6. 2025In Defense of Defensive Forecastingcited by 5
  7. 2025Generalized and Unified Equivalences between Hardness and Pseudoentropycited by 5
  8. 2025Improved Bounds for Swap Multicalibration and Swap Omnipredictioncited by 4
  9. 2025A Perfectly Truthful Calibration Measurecited by 4
  10. 2025Calibration through the Lens of Indistinguishabilitycited by 4
  11. 2025Sample-Efficient Omniprediction for Proper Lossescited by 4
  12. 2025Efficient Swap Multicalibration of Elicitable Propertiescited by 4
21 more
  1. 2025Robust Decision Making with Partially Calibrated Forecastscited by 3
  2. 2025Efficient Calibration for Decision Makingcited by 3
  3. 2026Simultaneous Blackwell Approachability and Applications to Multiclass Omnipredictioncited by 3
  4. 2026An Efficient Black-Box Reduction from Online Learning to Multicalibration, and a New Route to Phi-Regret Minimizationcited by 3
  5. 2026TCS-BENCH: Benchmarking State-of-the-Art Generative AI Theoretical Computer Science Research Abilitycited by 3
  6. 2025Dimension-Free Decision Calibration for Nonlinear Loss Functionscited by 2
  7. 2025Online Omniprediction with Long-Term Constraintscited by 2
  8. 2026Group-realizable multi-group learning by minimizing empirical riskcited by 2
  9. 2026Defensive Generationcited by 1
  10. 2026Testable and Actionable Calibration for Full Swap Regretcited by 1
  11. 2026Toward Simultaneously Optimal Regret in U-Calibrationcited by 1
  12. 2026Optimal Deterministic Multicalibration and Omnipredictioncited by 1
  13. 2026Optimal Recalibration of an Online Predictorcited by 1
  14. 2025Auditability and the Landscape of Distance to Multicalibrationcited by 0
  15. 2025Dynamic Regret Bounds for Online Omniprediction with Long Term Constraintscited by 0
  16. 2026Locally Adaptive Multi-Objective Learningcited by 0
  17. 2026Efficient Opportunistic Approachabilitycited by 0
  18. 2026Flexible Routing via Uncertainty Decompositioncited by 0
  19. 2026Calibration without labels in multiple testingcited by 0
  20. 2026Blackwell Approachability and Gradient Equilibrium are Equivalentcited by 0
  21. 2026Fast Rates for Swap-Agnostic Learning of Proper Lossescited by 0