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coverforest: Conformal Predictions with Random Forest in Python

arXiv 2501.14570 ↗First posted 24 Jan 2025stat.ML cs.LG stat.COcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Conformal prediction provides a framework for uncertainty quantification, specifically in the forms of prediction intervals and sets with distribution-free guaranteed coverage. While recent cross-conformal techniques such as CV+ and Jackknife+-after-bootstrap achieve better data efficiency than traditional split conformal methods, they incur substantial computational costs due to required pairwise comparisons between training and test samples' out-of-bag scores. Observing that these methods naturally extend from ensemble models, particularly random forests, we leverage existing optimized random forest implementations to enable efficient cross-conformal predictions. We present coverforest, a Python package that implements efficient conformal prediction methods specifically optimized for random forests. coverforest supports both regression and classification tasks through various conformal prediction methods, including split conformal, CV+, Jackknife+-after-bootstrap, and adaptive prediction sets. Our package leverages parallel computing and Cython optimizations to speed up out-of-bag calculations. Our experiments demonstrate that coverforest's predictions achieve the desired level of coverage. In addition, its training and prediction times can be faster than an existing implementation by 2--9 times. The source code for the coverforest is hosted on GitHub at https://github.com/donlap/coverforest.

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References · 12

  1. 2016Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regressioncited by 657
  2. 2017Ray: A Distributed Framework for Emerging AI Applicationscited by 516
  3. 2020Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coveragecited by 390
  4. 2020Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Predictioncited by 365
  5. 2022Conformal Risk Controlcited by 290
  6. 2021Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Setscited by 278
  7. 2016Least Ambiguous Set-Valued Classifiers with Bounded Error Levelscited by 270
  8. 2021Learn then Test: Calibrating Predictive Algorithms to Achieve Risk Controlcited by 256
  9. 2019Predictive inference with the jackknife+cited by 206
  10. 2020Machine Learning in Python: Main developments and technology trends in data science, machine learning, and artificial intelligencecited by 81
  11. 2020Predictive Inference Is Free with the Jackknife+-after-Bootstrapcited by 55
  12. 2017Random Forest Missing Data Algorithmscited by 23

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