Risk-Aware Vehicle Trajectory Prediction Under Safety-Critical Scenarios
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
Trajectory prediction is significant for intelligent vehicles to achieve high-level autonomous driving, and a lot of relevant research achievements have been made recently. Despite the rapid development, most existing studies solely focused on normal safe scenarios while largely neglecting safety-critical scenarios, particularly those involving imminent collisions. This oversight may result in autonomous vehicles lacking the essential predictive ability in such situations, posing a significant threat to safety. To tackle these, this paper proposes a risk-aware trajectory prediction framework tailored to safety-critical scenarios. Leveraging distinctive hazardous features, we develop three core risk-aware components. First, we introduce a risk-incorporated scene encoder, which augments conventional encoders with quantitative risk information to achieve risk-aware encoding of hazardous scene contexts. Next, we incorporate endpoint-risk-combined intention queries as prediction priors in the decoder to ensure that the predicted multimodal trajectories cover both various spatial intentions and risk levels. Lastly, an auxiliary risk prediction task is implemented for the ultimate risk-aware prediction. Furthermore, to support model training and performance evaluation, we introduce a safety-critical trajectory prediction dataset and tailored evaluation metrics. We conduct comprehensive evaluations and compare our model with several SOTA models. Results demonstrate the superior performance of our model, with a significant improvement in most metrics. This prediction advancement enables autonomous vehicles to execute correct collision avoidance maneuvers under safety-critical scenarios, eventually enhancing road traffic safety.
Key facts. Cited by 7 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 32 of its 54 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 18 Jul 2024.
Builds on
32 of 54 references.
References · 32
- 2016PointNet: Deep Learning on Point Sets for 3D Classification and Segmentationcited by 5,248
- 2019nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous drivingcited by 4,523
- 2019Scalability in Perception for Autonomous Driving: Waymo Open Datasetcited by 2,451
- 2017CARLA: An Open Urban Driving Simulatorcited by 2,449
- 2019Argoverse: 3D Tracking and Forecasting with Rich Mapscited by 732
- 2023Argoverse 2: Next Generation Datasets for Self-Driving Perception and Forecastingcited by 707
- 2017DOTA: A Large-scale Dataset for Object Detection in Aerial Imagescited by 623
- 2021Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Datasetcited by 537
- 2020TNT: Target-driveN Trajectory Predictioncited by 347
- 2020Social-STGCNN: A Social Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Network for Human Trajectory Predictioncited by 325
- 2022Wayformer: Motion Forecasting via Simple & Efficient Attention Networkscited by 280
- 2018The highD Dataset: A Drone Dataset of Naturalistic Vehicle Trajectories on German Highways for Validation of Highly Automated Driving Systemscited by 277
20 more
- 2022Motion Transformer with Global Intention Localization and Local Movement Refinementcited by 270
- 2021MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Predictioncited by 246
- 2019INTERACTION Dataset: An INTERnational, Adversarial and Cooperative moTION Dataset in Interactive Driving Scenarios with Semantic Mapscited by 231
- 2023GameFormer: Game-theoretic Modeling and Learning of Transformer-based Interactive Prediction and Planning for Autonomous Drivingcited by 141
- 2023MTR++: Multi-Agent Motion Prediction with Symmetric Scene Modeling and Guided Intention Queryingcited by 140
- 2019The inD Dataset: A Drone Dataset of Naturalistic Road User Trajectories at German Intersectionscited by 137
- 2021LaneRCNN: Distributed Representations for Graph-Centric Motion Forecastingcited by 113
- 2018TrafficPredict: Trajectory Prediction for Heterogeneous Traffic-Agentscited by 111
- 2020Social NCE: Contrastive Learning of Socially-aware Motion Representationscited by 58
- 2022Social-Implicit: Rethinking Trajectory Prediction Evaluation and The Effectiveness of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimationcited by 40
- 2024HPNet: Dynamic Trajectory Forecasting with Historical Prediction Attentioncited by 38
- 2021Review of Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction Methods: Comparing Deep Learning and Knowledge-based Approachescited by 30
- 2023SEPT: Towards Efficient Scene Representation Learning for Motion Predictioncited by 27
- 2021MSN: Multi-Style Network for Trajectory Predictioncited by 19
- 2023MTP-GO: Graph-Based Probabilistic Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction with Neural ODEscited by 19
- 2024Hybrid-Prediction Integrated Planning for Autonomous Drivingcited by 18
- 2023EDA: Evolving and Distinct Anchors for Multimodal Motion Predictioncited by 17
- 2022Safety-compliant Generative Adversarial Networks for Human Trajectory Forecastingcited by 12
- 2020Bridging the Gap between Optimal Trajectory Planning and Safety-Critical Control with Applications to Autonomous Vehiclescited by 6
- 2023Proactive Emergency Collision Avoidance for Automated Driving in Highway Scenarioscited by 3
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2025: 5; 2026: 2.
7 papers.
- 2025LD-Scene: LLM-Guided Diffusion for Controllable Generation of Adversarial Safety-Critical Driving Scenarioscited by 10
- 2025STRAP: Spatial-Temporal Risk-Attentive Vehicle Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Drivingcited by 2
- 2026AnchorDrive: LLM Scenario Rollout with Anchor-Guided Diffusion Regeneration for Safety-Critical Scenario Generationcited by 1
- 2025Red-Team Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Emergency Braking Scenariocited by 0
- 2025A Trajectory Generator for High-Density Traffic and Diverse Agent-Interaction Scenarioscited by 0
- 2025Game-Theoretic Risk-Shaped Reinforcement Learning for Safe Autonomous Drivingcited by 0
- 2026From Cues to Horizons: Dynamic Risk Horizon Profiling for Trajectory Predictioncited by 0
- 2026From Cues to Horizons: Dynamic Risk Horizon Profiling for Trajectory Prediction30 May 2026
- 2026AnchorDrive: LLM Scenario Rollout with Anchor-Guided Diffusion Regeneration for Safety-Critical Scenario Generation3 Mar 2026
- 2025Game-Theoretic Risk-Shaped Reinforcement Learning for Safe Autonomous Driving13 Oct 2025
- 2025A Trajectory Generator for High-Density Traffic and Diverse Agent-Interaction Scenarios3 Oct 2025
- 2025Red-Team Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Emergency Braking Scenario21 Jul 2025
- 2025STRAP: Spatial-Temporal Risk-Attentive Vehicle Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving11 Jul 2025
- 2025LD-Scene: LLM-Guided Diffusion for Controllable Generation of Adversarial Safety-Critical Driving Scenarios16 May 2025