mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Boosted Conformal Prediction Intervals

arXiv 2406.07449 ↗First posted 11 Jun 2024stat.ME stat.MLcited by 25

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Abstract (arXiv)

This paper introduces a boosted conformal procedure designed to tailor conformalized prediction intervals toward specific desired properties, such as enhanced conditional coverage or reduced interval length. We employ machine learning techniques, notably gradient boosting, to systematically improve upon a predefined conformity score function. This process is guided by carefully constructed loss functions that measure the deviation of prediction intervals from the targeted properties. The procedure operates post-training, relying solely on model predictions and without modifying the trained model (e.g., the deep network). Systematic experiments demonstrate that starting from conventional conformal methods, our boosted procedure achieves substantial improvements in reducing interval length and decreasing deviation from target conditional coverage.

Key facts. Cited by 25 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 12 of its 29 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 11 Jun 2024.

Builds on

12 of 29 references.

References · 12

  1. 2016XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting Systemcited by 5,120
  2. 2021Convex optimizationcited by 2,479
  3. 2016Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regressioncited by 657
  4. 2019Conformalized Quantile Regressioncited by 620
  5. 2020Fast Differentiable Sorting and Rankingcited by 196
  6. 2023Conformal Prediction With Conditional Guaranteescited by 146
  7. 2021Learning Optimal Conformal Classifierscited by 108
  8. 2023Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networkscited by 79
  9. 2019A comparison of some conformal quantile regression methodscited by 76
  10. 2019Adaptive, Distribution-Free Prediction Intervals for Deep Networkscited by 56
  11. 2024On Temperature Scaling and Conformal Prediction of Deep Classifierscited by 13
  12. 2019Contrast Trees and Distribution Boostingcited by 5

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2024: 3; 2025: 9; 2026: 13.

25 papers.

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  1. 2024Length Optimization in Conformal Predictioncited by 39
  2. 2025Rectifying Conformity Scores for Better Conditional Coveragecited by 17
  3. 2024Prune 'n Predict: Optimizing LLM Decision-making with Conformal Predictioncited by 15
  4. 2024Optimized Conformal Selection: Powerful Selective Inference After Conformity Score Optimizationcited by 11
  5. 2025Volume Optimality in Conformal Prediction with Structured Prediction Setscited by 9
  6. 2025Synthetic-Powered Predictive Inferencecited by 9
  7. 2026VLM Judges Can Rank but Cannot Score: Task-Dependent Uncertainty in Multimodal Evaluationcited by 7
  8. 2025Unveil Sources of Uncertainty: Feature Contribution to Conformal Prediction Intervalscited by 4
  9. 2026Efficient Federated Conformal Prediction with Group-Conditional Guaranteecited by 4
  10. 2025Colorful Pinball: Density-Weighted Quantile Regression for Conditional Guarantee of Conformal Predictioncited by 3
  11. 2025Exact Reformulation and Optimization for Direct Metric Optimization in Binary Imbalanced Classificationcited by 2
  12. 2025Scalable and adaptive prediction bands with kernel sum-of-squarescited by 1
13 more
  1. 2026Multi-Distribution Robust Conformal Predictioncited by 1
  2. 2026Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Improving Factuality of Generations by Large Language Modelscited by 1
  3. 2026On Optimal Data Splitting for Split Conformal Predictioncited by 1
  4. 2025Conformal Mixed-Integer Constraint Learning with Feasibility Guaranteescited by 0
  5. 2025QUTCC: Quantile Uncertainty Training and Conformal Calibration for Imaging Inverse Problemscited by 0
  6. 2026Questioning the Coverage-Length Metric in Conformal Prediction: When Shorter Intervals Are Not Bettercited by 0
  7. 2026Leverage-Weighted Conformal Predictioncited by 0
  8. 2026LoBoost: Fast Model-Native Local Conformal Prediction for Gradient-Boosted Treescited by 0
  9. 2026Elements of Conformal Predictioncited by 0
  10. 2026Conformalized Percentile Interval: Finite Sample Validity and Improved Conditional Performancecited by 0
  11. 2026Bi-Level Chaotic Fusion Based Graph Convolutional Network for Stock Market Prediction Intervalcited by 0
  12. 2026Robust Bayes-Assisted Conformal Predictioncited by 0
  13. 2026How Synthetic Labels Improve Conformal Prediction: A Perspective on Conditional Coveragecited by 0