mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Conformal Prediction via Regression-as-Classification

arXiv 2404.08168 ↗First posted 12 Apr 2024cs.LG stat.MLcited by 18

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Abstract (arXiv)

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

Key facts. Cited by 18 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 21 of its 36 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 12 Apr 2024.

Builds on

21 of 36 references.

References · 21

  1. 2016Colorful Image Colorizationcited by 1,114
  2. 2016Pixel Recurrent Neural Networkscited by 816
  3. 2018Deep Ordinal Regression Network for Monocular Depth Estimationcited by 723
  4. 2016Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regressioncited by 668
  5. 2019Conformalized Quantile Regressioncited by 629
  6. 2020Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Predictioncited by 366
  7. 2022Mitigating Neural Network Overconfidence with Logit Normalizationcited by 252
  8. 2019Distributional conformal predictioncited by 105
  9. 2021Conformal Prediction using Conditional Histogramscited by 77
  10. 2020CD-split and HPD-split: efficient conformal regions in high dimensionscited by 76
  11. 2021Conformal Bayesian Computationcited by 39
  12. 2019Conditional Density Estimation with Neural Networks: Best Practices and Benchmarkscited by 38
9 more
  1. 2022Improving Trustworthiness of AI Disease Severity Rating in Medical Imaging with Ordinal Conformal Prediction Setscited by 38
  2. 2017An Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Method for Counterfactual and Synthetic Controlscited by 36
  3. 2022Regression as Classification: Influence of Task Formulation on Neural Network Featurescited by 29
  4. 2021Locally Valid and Discriminative Prediction Intervals for Deep Learning Modelscited by 24
  5. 2021Stable Conformal Prediction Setscited by 19
  6. 2023Improving Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Classifiers via Neighborhood Conformal Prediction: Novel Algorithm and Theoretical Analysiscited by 16
  7. 2019Concepts and Applications of Conformal Prediction in Computational Drug Discoverycited by 13
  8. 2021Root-finding Approaches for Computing Conformal Prediction Setcited by 8
  9. 2023Conformalization of Sparse Generalized Linear Modelscited by 4

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2024: 7; 2025: 9; 2026: 2.

18 papers.

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  1. 2025Analyzing Uncertainty of LLM-as-a-Judge: Interval Evaluations with Conformal Predictioncited by 27
  2. 2024Probabilistic Conformal Prediction with Approximate Conditional Validitycited by 23
  3. 2025Multivariate Conformal Prediction using Optimal Transportcited by 22
  4. 2024Conformal Thresholded Intervals for Efficient Regressioncited by 11
  5. 2026VLM Judges Can Rank but Cannot Score: Task-Dependent Uncertainty in Multimodal Evaluationcited by 8
  6. 2025Non-exchangeable Conformal Prediction with Optimal Transport: Tackling Distribution Shifts with Unlabeled Datacited by 5
  7. 2024A Collaborative Content Moderation Framework for Toxicity Detection based on Conformalized Estimates of Annotation Disagreementcited by 3
  8. 2025Reliable uncertainty quantification for 2D/3D anatomical landmark localization using multi-output conformal predictioncited by 3
  9. 2024From Conformal Predictions to Confidence Regionscited by 2
  10. 2024Conformal Prediction for Multimodal Regressioncited by 2
  11. 2025CLAPS: Aleatoric-Epistemic Scaling via Last-Layer Laplace for Conformal Regressioncited by 2
  12. 2024Average-Over-Time Spiking Neural Networks for Uncertainty Estimation in Regressioncited by 1
6 more
  1. 2025CARE: Confidence-Aware Regression Estimation of building density fine-tuning EO Foundation Modelscited by 1
  2. 2025Approximating Full Conformal Prediction for Neural Network Regression with Gauss-Newton Influencecited by 1
  3. 2024Conformalized High-Density Quantile Regression via Dynamic Prototypes-based Probability Density Estimationcited by 0
  4. 2025Synergistic Feature Fusion for Latent Lyrical Classification: A Gated Deep Learning Architecturecited by 0
  5. 2025Contextual Gating within the Transformer Stack: Synergistic Feature Modulation for Enhanced Lyrical Classification and Calibrationcited by 0
  6. 2026Robust Conformal Consensus: Multi-Agent LLM-as-a-Judge Interval Evaluation with Conformal Predictioncited by 0