CrimeAlarm: Towards Intensive Intent Dynamics in Fine-grained Crime Prediction

Granularity and accuracy are two crucial factors for crime event prediction. Within fine-grained event classification, multiple criminal intents may alternately exhibit in preceding sequential events, and progress differently in next. Such intensive intent dynamics makes training models hard to capture unobserved intents, and thus leads to sub-optimal generalization performance, especially in the intertwining of numerous potential events. To capture comprehensive criminal intents, this paper proposes a fine-grained sequential crime prediction framework, CrimeAlarm, that equips with a novel mutual distillation strategy inspired by curriculum learning. During the early training phase, spot-shared criminal intents are captured through high-confidence sequence samples. In the later phase, spot-specific intents are gradually learned by increasing the contribution of low-confidence sequences. Meanwhile, the output probability distributions are reciprocally learned between prediction networks to model unobserved criminal intents. Extensive experiments show that CrimeAlarm outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of NDCG@5, with improvements of 4.51% for the NYC16 and 7.73% for the CHI18 in accuracy measures.