MedDiffusion: Boosting Health Risk Prediction via Diffusion-based Data Augmentation

Health risk prediction is one of the fundamental tasks under predictive modeling in the medical domain, which aims to forecast the potential health risks that patients may face in the future using their historical Electronic Health Records (EHR). Researchers have developed several risk prediction models to handle the unique challenges of EHR data, such as its sequential nature, high dimensionality, and inherent noise. These models have yielded impressive results. Nonetheless, a key issue undermining their effectiveness is data insufficiency. A variety of data generation and augmentation methods have been introduced to mitigate this issue by expanding the size of the training data set through the learning of underlying data distributions. However, the performance of these methods is often limited due to their task-unrelated design. To address these shortcomings, this paper introduces a novel, end-to-end diffusion-based risk prediction model, named MedDiffusion. It enhances risk prediction performance by creating synthetic patient data during training to enlarge sample space. Furthermore, MedDiffusion discerns hidden relationships between patient visits using a step-wise attention mechanism, enabling the model to automatically retain the most vital information for generating high-quality data. Experimental evaluation on four real-world medical datasets demonstrates that MedDiffusion outperforms 14 cutting-edge baselines in terms of PR-AUC, F1, and Cohen's Kappa. We also conduct ablation studies and benchmark our model against GAN-based alternatives to further validate the rationality and adaptability of our model design. Additionally, we analyze generated data to offer fresh insights into the model's interpretability.