Real-Time Tube-Based Non-Gaussian Risk Bounded Motion Planning for Stochastic Nonlinear Systems in Uncertain Environments via Motion Primitives

We consider the motion planning problem for stochastic nonlinear systems in uncertain environments. More precisely, in this problem the robot has stochastic nonlinear dynamics and uncertain initial locations, and the environment contains multiple dynamic uncertain obstacles. Obstacles can be of arbitrary shape, can deform, and can move. All uncertainties do not necessarily have Gaussian distribution. This general setting has been considered and solved in [1]. In addition to the assumptions above, in this paper, we consider long-term tasks, where the planning method in [1] would fail, as the uncertainty of the system states grows too large over a long time horizon. Unlike [1], we present a real-time online motion planning algorithm. We build discrete-time motion primitives and their corresponding continuous-time tubes offline, so that almost all system states of each motion primitive are guaranteed to stay inside the corresponding tube. We convert probabilistic safety constraints into a set of deterministic constraints called risk contours. During online execution, we verify the safety of the tubes against deterministic risk contours using sum-of-squares (SOS) programming. The provided SOS-based method verifies the safety of the tube in the presence of uncertain obstacles without the need for uncertainty samples and time discretization in real-time. By bounding the probability the system states staying inside the tube and bounding the probability of the tube colliding with obstacles, our approach guarantees bounded probability of system states colliding with obstacles. We demonstrate our approach on several long-term robotics tasks.