KGML-xDTD: A Knowledge Graph-based Machine Learning Framework for Drug Treatment Prediction and Mechanism Description

Background: Computational drug repurposing is a cost- and time-efficient approach that aims to identify new therapeutic targets or diseases (indications) of existing drugs/compounds. It is especially critical for emerging and/or orphan diseases due to its cheaper investment and shorter research cycle compared with traditional wet-lab drug discovery approaches. However, the underlying mechanisms of action (MOAs) between repurposed drugs and their target diseases remain largely unknown, which is still a main obstacle for computational drug repurposing methods to be widely adopted in clinical settings. Results: In this work, we propose KGML-xDTD: a Knowledge Graph-based Machine Learning framework for explainably predicting Drugs Treating Diseases. It is a two-module framework that not only predicts the treatment probabilities between drugs/compounds and diseases but also biologically explains them via knowledge graph (KG) path-based, testable mechanisms of action (MOAs). We leverage knowledge-and-publication based information to extract biologically meaningful "demonstration paths" as the intermediate guidance in the Graph-based Reinforcement Learning (GRL) path-finding process. Comprehensive experiments and case study analyses show that the proposed framework can achieve state-of-the-art performance in both predictions of drug repurposing and recapitulation of human-curated drug MOA paths. Conclusions: KGML-xDTD is the first model framework that can offer KG-path explanations for drug repurposing predictions by leveraging the combination of prediction outcomes and existing biological knowledge and publications. We believe it can effectively reduce "black-box" concerns and increase prediction confidence for drug repurposing based on predicted path-based explanations, and further accelerate the process of drug discovery for emerging diseases.