ThinkSum: Probabilistic reasoning over sets using large language models
On the map: LLM reasoning → Test-time compute and efficient thinking
Abstract (arXiv)
Large language models (LLMs) have a substantial capacity for high-level analogical reasoning: reproducing patterns in linear text that occur in their training data (zero-shot evaluation) or in the provided context (few-shot in-context learning). However, recent studies show that even the more advanced LLMs fail in scenarios that require reasoning over multiple objects or facts and making sequences of logical deductions. We propose a two-stage probabilistic inference paradigm, ThinkSum, which reasons over sets of objects or facts in a structured manner. In the first stage (Think - retrieval of associations), a LLM is queried in parallel over a set of phrases extracted from the prompt or an auxiliary model call. In the second stage (Sum - probabilistic inference or reasoning), the results of these queries are aggregated to make the final prediction. We demonstrate the possibilities and advantages of ThinkSum on the BIG-bench suite of LLM evaluation tasks, achieving improvements over the state of the art using GPT-family models on thirteen difficult tasks, often with far smaller model variants. We also compare and contrast ThinkSum with other proposed modifications to direct prompting of LLMs, such as variants of chain-of-thought prompting. Our results suggest that because the probabilistic inference in ThinkSum is performed outside of calls to the LLM, ThinkSum is less sensitive to prompt design, yields more interpretable predictions, and can be flexibly combined with latent variable models to extract structured knowledge from LLMs. Overall, our proposed paradigm represents a promising approach for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of LLMs.
Key facts. Cited by 23 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 19 of its 43 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 4 Oct 2022.
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- 2022Rationale-Augmented Ensembles in Language Modelscited by 111
- 2017The Consciousness Priorcited by 105
- 2022Language Model Cascadescited by 104
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Citing papers per year: 2022: 1; 2023: 9; 2024: 4; 2025: 5; 2026: 4.
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- 2023Exploring the Reversal Curse and Other Deductive Logical Reasoning in BERT and GPT-Based Large Language Models6 Dec 2023
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- 2023Disentangling Extraction and Reasoning in Multi-hop Spatial Reasoning25 Oct 2023
- 2023PromptAgent: Strategic Planning with Language Models Enables Expert-level Prompt Optimization25 Oct 2023
- 2023ToolkenGPT: Augmenting Frozen Language Models with Massive Tools via Tool Embeddings19 May 2023
- 2023GPT is becoming a Turing machine: Here are some ways to program it25 Mar 2023
- 2023The Life Cycle of Knowledge in Big Language Models: A Survey14 Mar 2023
- 2023Iterated Decomposition: Improving Science Q&A by Supervising Reasoning Processes4 Jan 2023
- 2022Prompting Is Programming: A Query Language for Large Language Models12 Dec 2022
- 2023Iterated Decomposition: Improving Science Q&A by Supervising Reasoning Processescited by 15
- 2025A Survey on Parallel Reasoningcited by 11
- 2024Codenames as a Benchmark for Large Language Modelscited by 8
- 2025Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Exploring Probabilistic Reasoning Capabilities of LLMscited by 8
- 2023Disentangling Extraction and Reasoning in Multi-hop Spatial Reasoningcited by 6
- 2023Exploring the Reversal Curse and Other Deductive Logical Reasoning in BERT and GPT-Based Large Language Modelscited by 5
- 2024DeFine: Decision-Making with Analogical Reasoning over Factor Profilescited by 3
- 2025A Survey on Parallel Reasoning14 Oct 2025
- 2025Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Exploring Probabilistic Reasoning Capabilities of LLMs12 Sep 2025
- 2024Codenames as a Benchmark for Large Language Models16 Dec 2024
- 2024DeFine: Decision-Making with Analogical Reasoning over Factor Profiles2 Oct 2024
- 2023Exploring the Reversal Curse and Other Deductive Logical Reasoning in BERT and GPT-Based Large Language Models6 Dec 2023
- 2023Disentangling Extraction and Reasoning in Multi-hop Spatial Reasoning25 Oct 2023
- 2023Iterated Decomposition: Improving Science Q&A by Supervising Reasoning Processes4 Jan 2023
- 2023PromptAgent: Strategic Planning with Language Models Enables Expert-level Prompt Optimizationcited by 226
- 2022Prompting Is Programming: A Query Language for Large Language Modelscited by 110
- 2023The Life Cycle of Knowledge in Big Language Models: A Surveycited by 23
- 2023Holistic Evaluation of GPT-4V for Biomedical Imagingcited by 19
- 2024BIRD: A Trustworthy Bayesian Inference Framework for Large Language Modelscited by 18
- 2023GPT is becoming a Turing machine: Here are some ways to program itcited by 16
- 2025Always Tell Me The Odds: Fine-grained Conditional Probability Estimationcited by 9
- 2024Towards Building Specialized Generalist AI with System 1 and System 2 Fusioncited by 8
- 2023Prompt Sketching for Large Language Modelscited by 3
- 2025Ad-hoc Concept Forming in the Game Codenames as a Means for Evaluating Large Language Modelscited by 1
- 2025Bonsai: Interpretable Tree-Adaptive Grounded Reasoningcited by 1
- 2026D-Models and E-Models: Diversity-Stability Trade-offs in the Sampling Behavior of Large Language Modelscited by 1
- 2026D-Models and E-Models: Diversity-Stability Trade-offs in the Sampling Behavior of Large Language Models25 Jan 2026
- 2025Always Tell Me The Odds: Fine-grained Conditional Probability Estimation2 May 2025
- 2025Bonsai: Interpretable Tree-Adaptive Grounded Reasoning4 Apr 2025
- 2025Ad-hoc Concept Forming in the Game Codenames as a Means for Evaluating Large Language Models17 Feb 2025
- 2024Towards Building Specialized Generalist AI with System 1 and System 2 Fusion11 Jul 2024
- 2024BIRD: A Trustworthy Bayesian Inference Framework for Large Language Models18 Apr 2024
- 2023Holistic Evaluation of GPT-4V for Biomedical Imaging10 Nov 2023
- 2023Prompt Sketching for Large Language Models8 Nov 2023
- 2023PromptAgent: Strategic Planning with Language Models Enables Expert-level Prompt Optimization25 Oct 2023
- 2023GPT is becoming a Turing machine: Here are some ways to program it25 Mar 2023
- 2023The Life Cycle of Knowledge in Big Language Models: A Survey14 Mar 2023
- 2022Prompting Is Programming: A Query Language for Large Language Models12 Dec 2022
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- 2026Using Probabilistic Programs to Train Inductive Reasoning in Large Language Models
- 2024Reasoning over Uncertain Text by Generative Large Language Models
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