Revisiting Information Cascades in Online Social Networks

It's by now folklore that to understand the activity pattern of a user in an online social network (OSN) platform, one needs to look at his friends or the ones he follows. The common perception is that these friends exert influence on the user, effecting his decision whether to re-share content or not. Hinging upon this intuition, a variety of models were developed to predict how information propagates in OSN, similar to the way infection spreads in the population. In this paper, we revisit this world view and arrive at new conclusions. Given a set of users V, we study the task of predicting whether a user u ∈ V will re-share content by some v ∈ V at the following time window given the activity of all the users in V in the previous time window. We design several algorithms for this task, ranging from a simple greedy algorithm that only learns u's conditional probability distribution, ignoring the rest of V, to a convolutional neural network-based algorithm that receives the activity of all of V, but does not receive explicitly the social link structure. We tested our algorithms on four datasets that we collected from Twitter, each revolving around a different popular topic in 2020. The best performance, average F1-score of 0.86 over the four datasets, was achieved by the convolutional neural network. The simple, social-link ignorant, algorithm achieved an average F1-score of 0.78.