mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

When Repeated Measurements Hurt Tabular Foundation Models

arXiv 2610.16801 ↗First posted 12 Oct 2026stat.ML cs.LGcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) achieve state-of-the-art performance on IID benchmarks, but how do they respond to repeated measurements at the same inputs? Across six TFMs, synthetic and semi-synthetic experiments show that additional measurements can improve predictions at measured inputs while degrading them elsewhere. Harm is most frequent at low noise, and irrelevant features amplify it in several models; real repeated-measurement datasets show similar patterns. Statistically, the IID rule targeted by PFN pretraining treats each repeated input as fresh evidence about the input distribution. When the prior links this distribution to the response function, the resulting protocol mismatch can outweigh the benefit of additional measurements, even under exact inference. Computationally, interventions identify row-count dependence in TabPFN-v3's attention scaling as a contributor to harm. Resetting the count largely reverses distortion in a noiseless linear diagnostic and attenuates amplification by irrelevant features. Finally, we evaluate ways to retain the benefits of repeated measurements while limiting their harm. Averaging measurements usually outperforms supplying them separately at larger repetition counts, whereas count reset can suppress both harm and useful gains. Code, saved results and reproduction instructions are available at https://github.com/drizmiz/PFN-Repeated-Measurement-Supp

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References · 20

  1. 2022TabPFN: A Transformer That Solves Small Tabular Classification Problems in a Secondcited by 674
  2. 2021Transformers Can Do Bayesian Inferencecited by 360
  3. 2025TabICL: A Tabular Foundation Model for In-Context Learning on Large Datacited by 289
  4. 2025TabArena: A Living Benchmark for Machine Learning on Tabular Datacited by 176
  5. 2026TabICLv2: A better, faster, scalable, and open tabular foundation modelcited by 144
  6. 2024TabDPT: Scaling Tabular Foundation Models on Real Datacited by 113
  7. 2014Inconsistency of Bayesian Inference for Misspecified Linear Models, and a Proposal for Repairing Itcited by 95
  8. 2019Tabular Benchmarks for Joint Architecture and Hyperparameter Optimizationcited by 58
  9. 2025Scalable-Softmax Is Superior for Attentioncited by 45
  10. 2016Practical heteroskedastic Gaussian process modeling for large simulation experimentscited by 39
  11. 2017Replication or exploration? Sequential design for stochastic simulation experimentscited by 30
  12. 2017CLTune: A Generic Auto-Tuner for OpenCL Kernelscited by 27
8 more
  1. 2021A General Derivative Identity for the Conditional Mean Estimator in Gaussian Noise and Some Applicationscited by 9
  2. 2026LimiX-2: A Contextual Mechanism Network Towards General Structured-Data Intelligencecited by 8
  3. 2026TabFM: A Zero-Shot Foundation Model for Tabular Datacited by 6
  4. 2025From Tables to Signals: Revealing Spectral Adaptivity in TabPFNcited by 4
  5. 2026Interpretable Tabular Foundation Models via In-Context Kernel Regressioncited by 4
  6. 2026Where Computation Lives Inside TabPFN: Causal Localisation of Attention Head Functioncited by 4
  7. 2024Bringing Auto-tuning to HIP: Analysis of Tuning Impact and Difficulty on AMD and Nvidia GPUscited by 3
  8. 2018Assessing Bayes factor surfaces using interactive visualization and computer surrogate modelingcited by 1

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