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On prediction from expert advice with more than five experts

arXiv 2610.05186 ↗First posted 4 Oct 2026math.AP cs.GT cs.LGcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

We prove that no single rank ordered adversary strategy is globally optimal for the prediction with expert advice problem with six or more experts, in both the geometric stopping and finite time horizon settings. The proof is based on establishing a leading order correction when one expert moves far ahead of the others. This allows us to connect optimal strategies between n and j<n experts and utilize recent results on the exact optimality set for the five expert problem.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 18 of its 38 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 4 Oct 2026.

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18 of 38 references.

References · 18

  1. 2019Prediction with Expert Advice: a PDE Perspectivecited by 17
  2. 2019New Potential-Based Bounds for Prediction with Expert Advicecited by 16
  3. 2019Finite-Time 4-Expert Prediction Problemcited by 14
  4. 2014Towards Optimal Algorithms for Prediction with Expert Advicecited by 13
  5. 2019On the asymptotic optimality of the comb strategy for prediction with expert advicecited by 10
  6. 2016Tight Lower Bounds for Multiplicative Weights Algorithmic Familiescited by 9
  7. 2020A PDE Approach to the Prediction of a Binary Sequence with Advice from Two History-Dependent Expertscited by 7
  8. 2013Towards Minimax Online Learning with Unknown Time Horizoncited by 6
  9. 2019Experimental Evidence for Asymptotic Non-Optimality of Comb Adversary Strategycited by 6
  10. 2019New Potential-Based Bounds for the Geometric-Stopping Version of Prediction with Expert Advicecited by 6
  11. 2020Malicious Experts versus the multiplicative weights algorithm in online predictioncited by 6
  12. 2020Online Prediction With History-Dependent Experts: The General Casecited by 6
6 more
  1. 2020Asymptotically optimal strategies for online prediction with history-dependent expertscited by 4
  2. 2024Numerical solution of a PDE arising from prediction with expert advicecited by 3
  3. 2026An explicit solution of the five-expert prediction PDE and the exact optimality set of COMBcited by 3
  4. 2026Prediction with Five Experts and Geometric Stopping: A Probabilistic Construction and Analytic Verificationcited by 3
  5. 2026Prediction with Expert Advice: Anytime Regret with Many Experts Matches the Fixed-Time Constantcited by 2
  6. 2026The finite-horizon five-expert prediction problemcited by 1

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