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Neyman-Pearson Classification with Indecisions: Simultaneous Control of Selective Type I and Type II Errors

arXiv 2610.04233 ↗First posted 3 Oct 2026stat.ME stat.MLcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Binary classification often requires controlling both type I and type II error rates at prespecified levels. When the class distributions overlap substantially, the two error limits may be incompatible if every observation must be classified. We study Neyman-Pearson classification with indecisions (NPI), which permits uncertain observations to remain unclassified and assesses selective type I and type II errors among definitive classifications within each class. For an independently trained score, we develop a model-free calibration procedure that combines all candidate threshold pairs passing calibration into a rule whose decision region contains that of every passing candidate. We couple the entire threshold search to a common martingale within each class and compute its finite-horizon crossing probability exactly, avoiding a multiplicity adjustment for the number of candidate pairs. The resulting classifier satisfies both population selective error limits simultaneously with user-specified high probability in finite samples, without assumptions on the accuracy of the fitted score. We bound the additional indecision due to calibration and evaluate the procedure in simulations and applications to recidivism and credit-default prediction.

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References · 19

  1. 2016XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting Systemcited by 5,166
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  11. 2022Adaptive novelty detection with false discovery rate guaranteecited by 15
  12. 2024Selecting informative conformal prediction sets with false coverage rate controlcited by 7
7 more
  1. 2021A Burden Shared is a Burden Halved: A Fairness-Adjusted Approach to Classificationcited by 6
  2. 2021Neyman-Pearson Multi-class Classification via Cost-sensitive Learningcited by 6
  3. 2026A Joint Finite-Sample Certificate for Adaptive Selective Conformal Risk Controlcited by 5
  4. 2021Asymmetric error control under imperfect supervision: a label-noise-adjusted Neyman-Pearson umbrella algorithmcited by 3
  5. 2025A Unified Framework for Large-Scale Inference of Classification: Error Rate Control and Optimalitycited by 2
  6. 2022A Locally Adaptive Shrinkage Approach to False Selection Rate Control in High-Dimensional Classificationcited by 1
  7. 2024Ask for More Than Bayes Optimal: A Theory of Indecisions for Selective Hypothesis Testingcited by 1

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