Selecting informative conformal prediction sets with false coverage rate control
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Abstract (arXiv)
In supervised learning, including regression and classification, conformal methods provide prediction sets for the outcome/label with finite sample coverage for any machine learning predictor. We consider here the case where such prediction sets come after a selection process. The selection process requires that the selected prediction sets be `informative' in a well defined sense. We consider both the classification and regression settings where the analyst may consider as informative only the sample with prediction sets small enough, excluding null values, or obeying other appropriate `monotone' constraints. We develop a unified framework for building such informative conformal prediction sets while controlling the false coverage rate (FCR) on the selected sample. While conformal prediction sets after selection have been the focus of much recent literature in the field, the new introduced procedures, called InfoSP and InfoSCOP, are to our knowledge the first ones providing FCR control for informative prediction sets. We show the usefulness of our resulting procedures on real and simulated data.
Key facts. Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 22 of its 44 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 18 Mar 2024.
Builds on
22 of 44 references.
References · 22
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10 more
- 2022Adaptive novelty detection with false discovery rate guaranteecited by 14
- 2024Confidence on the Focal: Conformal Prediction with Selection-Conditional Coveragecited by 14
- 2019Online Control of the False Coverage Rate and False Sign Ratecited by 11
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Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2024: 1; 2025: 2; 2026: 3.
6 papers.
- 2025Selective Conformal Risk Controlcited by 10
- 2024Powerful batch conformal prediction for classificationcited by 4
- 2025Model-agnostic Selective Labeling with Provable Statistical Guaranteescited by 2
- 2026Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Action Conditional Guaranteecited by 1
- 2026Online Selective Conformal Prediction with Asymmetric Rules: A Permutation Test Approachcited by 0
- 2026Elements of Conformal Predictioncited by 0
- 2026Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Action Conditional Guarantee4 Jun 2026
- 2026Elements of Conformal Prediction25 Mar 2026
- 2026Online Selective Conformal Prediction with Asymmetric Rules: A Permutation Test Approach10 Feb 2026
- 2025Selective Conformal Risk Control14 Dec 2025
- 2025Model-agnostic Selective Labeling with Provable Statistical Guarantees16 Oct 2025
- 2024Powerful batch conformal prediction for classification4 Nov 2024