mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Selecting informative conformal prediction sets with false coverage rate control

arXiv 2403.12295 ↗First posted 18 Mar 2024math.ST stat.ML stat.THcited by 6

Not on the map. Why?

Abstract (arXiv)

In supervised learning, including regression and classification, conformal methods provide prediction sets for the outcome/label with finite sample coverage for any machine learning predictor. We consider here the case where such prediction sets come after a selection process. The selection process requires that the selected prediction sets be `informative' in a well defined sense. We consider both the classification and regression settings where the analyst may consider as informative only the sample with prediction sets small enough, excluding null values, or obeying other appropriate `monotone' constraints. We develop a unified framework for building such informative conformal prediction sets while controlling the false coverage rate (FCR) on the selected sample. While conformal prediction sets after selection have been the focus of much recent literature in the field, the new introduced procedures, called InfoSP and InfoSCOP, are to our knowledge the first ones providing FCR control for informative prediction sets. We show the usefulness of our resulting procedures on real and simulated data.

Key facts. Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 22 of its 44 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 18 Mar 2024.

Builds on

22 of 44 references.

References · 22

  1. 2016Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regressioncited by 657
  2. 2019Conformalized Quantile Regressioncited by 620
  3. 2017Joint Distribution Optimal Transportation for Domain Adaptationcited by 280
  4. 2016Least Ambiguous Set-Valued Classifiers with Bounded Error Levelscited by 270
  5. 2019Predictive inference with the jackknife+cited by 206
  6. 2021Testing for Outliers with Conformal p-valuescited by 133
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  8. 2019Nested conformal prediction and quantile out-of-bag ensemble methodscited by 88
  9. 2013A Conformal Prediction Approach to Explore Functional Datacited by 85
  10. 2021Conformal Prediction using Conditional Histogramscited by 77
  11. 2022Selection by Prediction with Conformal p-valuescited by 66
  12. 2023Transductive conformal inference with adaptive scorescited by 21
10 more
  1. 2022Adaptive novelty detection with false discovery rate guaranteecited by 14
  2. 2024Confidence on the Focal: Conformal Prediction with Selection-Conditional Coveragecited by 14
  3. 2019Online Control of the False Coverage Rate and False Sign Ratecited by 11
  4. 2023Selective conformal inference with false coverage-statement rate controlcited by 11
  5. 2017A unified treatment of multiple testing with prior knowledge using the p-filtercited by 10
  6. 2021A Burden Shared is a Burden Halved: A Fairness-Adjusted Approach to Classificationcited by 5
  7. 2021Error rate control for classification rules in multiclass mixture modelscited by 2
  8. 2014Selective Sign-Determining Multiple Confidence Intervals with FCR Controlcited by 1
  9. 2016On Stepwise Control of Directional Errors under Independence and Some Dependencecited by 1
  10. 2024A constructive approach to selective risk controlcited by 1

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2024: 1; 2025: 2; 2026: 3.

6 papers.