MECHVAR: Variance-Guided Mechanism Discrimination for Autonomous Machine Learning Experiment Selection

Benchmark gains are often mechanism-ambiguous: reproducing an improvement does not by itself identify why it occurs. We study finite-library mechanism discrimination, where posterior-weighted candidate mechanisms, executable probes, and a limited experimental budget define a sequential experiment-selection problem. MECHVAR selects the next probe by maximizing the posterior-weighted variance of its predicted responses. Under a shared-Gaussian predictive model, this score is exactly proportional to the classical Box--Hill posterior-weighted pairwise-KL criterion, yet it admits O(KE) vectorized rescoring and a transparent additive audit over mechanism pairs. A local expansion further links the score to expected information gain (EIG) when predicted response separations are small. In a 25-block stress audit, MECHVAR outperforms confirmation-first in several moderate misspecification regimes, while its primary comparisons with EIG remain statistically unresolved. In a held-out Digits loop, normalized mechanism-identification AUC is 0.8975 for MECHVAR, 0.7825 for a score-greedy policy, and 0.9092 for EIG. At K = 100, E = 200, median single-thread full-library scoring is 10.36 microseconds for MECHVAR versus 57.69 ms for six-node quadrature EIG in the recorded environment. MECHVAR therefore provides a lightweight, auditable acquisition rule for finite-library experiment selection when a shared predictive scale is a defensible approximation.