Evaluating Budgeted Context Projection with Unexecuted Companion Runs

Context projection can shorten individual requests while changing whether an agent finishes within its budget. We examine how sequential evaluation obscures this trade-off when a capped first continuation prevents its companion from running. In a recorded ReVerPi source-reading campaign, 15 pairs with two final answers yield 12 historically scored successes per arm. Retaining all 27 intervention boundaries distinguishes observed failures from ten unexecuted companions and bounds projected-minus-full success between -9 and +1 tasks. Under the archived scoring contract, a frozen projection selector has a success difference from full context of [-3,0]; outside four fitting tasks, it is [-4,-1] across 23 boundaries. Excluding one task whose platform premise is not established by retained actor-input evidence changes the nonfitting range to [-3,0] across 22 boundaries, so strict inferiority is not robust to that exclusion. Among eleven historically joint-success pairs, projection uses 25% fewer aggregate logical tokens but more tokens for the median pair and 55 rather than 35 suffix requests. These retrospective results concern one adaptively assembled campaign, not population performance. The case motivates accounting that retains every boundary, preserves unknown outcomes and policy dependencies, checks task premises, and separates bounded completion from success-conditioned resource use.