mlsanityData to 13 Oct 2026

Design-Ignoring versus Design-Respecting World Models for Epidemiology

arXiv 2609.30679 ↗First posted 25 Sep 2026stat.ME stat.AP stat.MLcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

World models for epidemiology learn from records shaped by study designs, including assignment, sampling, measurement, and related processes. A model may therefore reconstruct observed trajectories while learning an intervention contrast that depends on how records were collected. We formalize study design as constraints on a world model latent-world interface, action mechanism, observation likelihood, and target readout. This distinguishes design-respecting models, which encode these constraints, from design-ignoring models, which fit selected records without relating assignment and observation to the intended intervention question. Using a large scale cluster-randomized test-negative trial, we hold the latent structure and fitting settings fixed and compare a design-ignoring case-count model with a design-respecting test-negative observation model. Both models achieve comparable factual reconstruction. Yet across 500 paired resampling experiments at different relative sampling intensity, median contrast changes are substantial for the design-ignoring model, versus merely marginal for the design-respecting model. The same qualitative separation holds when sampling also varies across clusters. Thus, factual reconstruction alone does not establish design alignment; testing whether fitted contrasts preserve design-implied observation-process invariances provides a sharper evaluation.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 13 Oct 2026). Builds on 9 of its 20 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 25 Sep 2026.

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9 of 20 references.

References · 9

  1. 2018World Modelscited by 1,481
  2. 2018Learning Latent Dynamics for Planning from Pixelscited by 1,241
  3. 2016Structured Inference Networks for Nonlinear State Space Modelscited by 182
  4. 2024Understanding World or Predicting Future? A Comprehensive Survey of World Modelscited by 161
  5. 2021Counterfactual Temporal Point Processescited by 20
  6. 2026EHRWorld: A Patient-Centric Medical World Model for Long-Horizon Clinical Trajectoriescited by 18
  7. 2026Toward World Models for Epidemiologycited by 3
  8. 2026Medical world models in healthcare: foundations, applications, and challenges for trustworthy clinical translationcited by 3
  9. 2022Randomization Inference for Cluster-Randomized Test-Negative Designs with Application to Dengue Studies: Unbiased estimation, Partial compliance, and Stepped-wedge designcited by 1

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