Design-Ignoring versus Design-Respecting World Models for Epidemiology
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Abstract (arXiv)
World models for epidemiology learn from records shaped by study designs, including assignment, sampling, measurement, and related processes. A model may therefore reconstruct observed trajectories while learning an intervention contrast that depends on how records were collected. We formalize study design as constraints on a world model latent-world interface, action mechanism, observation likelihood, and target readout. This distinguishes design-respecting models, which encode these constraints, from design-ignoring models, which fit selected records without relating assignment and observation to the intended intervention question. Using a large scale cluster-randomized test-negative trial, we hold the latent structure and fitting settings fixed and compare a design-ignoring case-count model with a design-respecting test-negative observation model. Both models achieve comparable factual reconstruction. Yet across 500 paired resampling experiments at different relative sampling intensity, median contrast changes are substantial for the design-ignoring model, versus merely marginal for the design-respecting model. The same qualitative separation holds when sampling also varies across clusters. Thus, factual reconstruction alone does not establish design alignment; testing whether fitted contrasts preserve design-implied observation-process invariances provides a sharper evaluation.
Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 13 Oct 2026). Builds on 9 of its 20 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 25 Sep 2026.
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References · 9
- 2018World Modelscited by 1,481
- 2018Learning Latent Dynamics for Planning from Pixelscited by 1,241
- 2016Structured Inference Networks for Nonlinear State Space Modelscited by 182
- 2024Understanding World or Predicting Future? A Comprehensive Survey of World Modelscited by 161
- 2021Counterfactual Temporal Point Processescited by 20
- 2026EHRWorld: A Patient-Centric Medical World Model for Long-Horizon Clinical Trajectoriescited by 18
- 2026Toward World Models for Epidemiologycited by 3
- 2026Medical world models in healthcare: foundations, applications, and challenges for trustworthy clinical translationcited by 3
- 2022Randomization Inference for Cluster-Randomized Test-Negative Designs with Application to Dengue Studies: Unbiased estimation, Partial compliance, and Stepped-wedge designcited by 1
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