Impact Is Not Invalidation: Ask About the Claim, Not the Diff

Memory systems for coding agents must decide, when a repository changes, which of their stored claims have become false. Content anchoring invalidates a claim whenever the artifact it came from changes, which fires constantly. Semantic-equivalence classification asks whether a diff preserves behavior, a question about the diff rather than about any stored claim. We show the second signal fails for a reason unrelated to model capability: asked whether a commit preserves behavior, five models spanning a 40x price range fire on 59-72% of real commits and reach precisions of only 0.291 to 0.329 against a 0.25 base rate. Asked instead whether one specific claim still holds, the same models on the same diffs reach 0.705 to 0.974. A control that hands the behavior-preservation judge the claim text, changing only the question, moves precision by 0.010 and 0.016; changing the question moves it by 0.49 and 0.65. We also compare against pytest-testmon, a deployed regression-test selector with coverage-derived dependency data: it reaches 0.868 recall at 0.415 precision, so near-complete knowledge of what a change can reach does not identify what it falsifies. Ground truth is execution, not annotation: a claim is a test function passing at commit t, and it has flipped if that same assertion text fails at t+1. Building this required an observation we did not find in prior work. On a CI-gated mainline a commit that leaves a pre-existing test failing cannot merge, so the naive construction has an empty positive class by design. We report 10,369 claims with 184 execution-verified flips mined from 23 Python libraries, splits held out by repository, a post-knowledge-cutoff split, a shuffled-diff null, a paraphrase control, and a leave-one-repository-out analysis over 17 repositories.