From Trainability Diagnostics to Optimization Claims: Boundaries and Controls in Variational Quantum Optimization

Barren plateau diagnostics characterize whether gradient signal remains available for training, but surviving signal need not translate into successful optimization. We study this trainability--optimization gap at the level of optimizer steps. Treating coefficient-weighted Hamiltonian-term gradients as task-like components, we introduce step-level diagnostics and derive an exact bridge between signed termwise organization, directional activity, and first-order descent. Resolving this bridge into standard first-order geometry shows that the apparent organization--activity factors are not independent optimization axes and that, at fixed state and update norm, the raw gradient maximizes first-order descent of the summed objective. We compare vanilla gradient descent, a deterministic Hamiltonian-term PCGrad variant, and probe-gated LSO-PCGrad on transverse-field Ising model instances with hardware-efficient and Hamiltonian variational ansatzes, together with matched controls for update norm and probe budget. Blind projection can improve an organization diagnostic while worsening final energy and first-order predictability. After conditioning on standard first-order geometry, residual term-space composition shows no reproducible material incremental association with realized descent, while optimizer-relative update norm shows positive material associations in some settings without cross-regime reproducibility. Matched controls provide no resolved final-energy benefit attributable to the projected direction, and the improvement of LSO-PCGrad is more consistent with probe-based search and step-norm adaptation than with Hamiltonian-term projection itself. These results show that gradient-structure diagnostics can characterize trainability and update geometry without serving as standalone evidence of optimization benefit, which requires controls matched on update norm and search budget.